Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Teranet House Price Index for April 2009

JUNE 2009

Downtrend slower in three cities

Canadian home prices in April were down 6.7% from a year earlier, according to the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™. It was the fifth consecutive 12-month decline. April was also the eighth straight month in which the composite index fell from the month before - the longest run of monthly declines since the beginning of index coverage in February 2000. The composite index is now 8.9% below the peak of last August.

Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

Contact Us

For general enquiries:

simon.cote@tres.bnc.ca

For licenses covering all index-linked products, please contact:

Simon Côté
simon.cote@tres.bnc.ca
514 879-5379

Of the six constituent city indices, three were down from a year earlier: Vancouver (−10.9%), Calgary (−9.8%) and Toronto (−7.6%). Three cities held out against 12-month deflation, though with marked deceleration of their 12-month rises: Montreal (2.4%), Ottawa (0.6%) and Halifax (0.2%). The 12-month price increase in Halifax was the first since January. Calgary prices have been correcting for well over a year now, since August 2007, and are now down 13.3% from the peak of that month. Calgary has shown monthly declines in 17 of the 20 months posted since then, including the 10 consecutive months from last July through April.

Vancouver prices have also shown 10 straight monthly declines and are down 11.9% from peak. Toronto prices have declined eight months in a row and are 11.3% below peak. In Ottawa the downtrend is less pronounced: prices have declined in each of the six months since the October peak and are now down a cumulative 4.8%. Halifax and Montreal prices were up from the previous month in both March and April and are now only 1.7% and 1.4% below their respective peaks.

Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™

The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca.

Metropolitan areaIndex level
April 2009
% change m/m% change y/yFrom peakPeak Date
Calgary152.01-0.6 %-9.8 %-13.3%August 2007
Halifax119.811.4 %0.2 %-1.7%November 2008
Montreal120.790.2 %2.4 %-1.4%September 2008
Ottawa112.53-0.5 %0.6 %-4.8%October 2008
Toronto104.01-0.6 %-7.6 %-11.3%August 2008
Vancouver132.67-0.3 %-10.9 %-11.9%June 2008
National Composite119.19-0.4 %-6.7 %-8.9%August 2008

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion.

All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.

By:

Marc Pinsonneault
Senior Economist
Economy & Strategy Team
National Bank Financial Group

Teranet - National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for their special collaboration on this report.

1 Value of Dwelling for the Owner-occupied Non-farm, Non-reserve Private Dwellings of Canada.

3 comments:

david said...

Interesting how these numbers are very different from the benchmark numbers.

"Vancouver prices have also shown 10 straight monthly declines and are down 11.9% from peak."

The benchmark would have you believe that prices have rebounded a considerable amount in May. It's probably because the benchmark simply averages all the sales of the month which doesnt really make a fair comparison between months.

If 1000 homes are all sold for $450K and 1 house is sold for $30 million (they are out there) then the average for the month is $479.5K. That one house brought the average up almost 30K!

It's good to know that the spring bounce probably isn't as big as I previously thought and there is still some sanity out there.

Dave said...

Teranet is a lagging index. Their prices are similar to what other benchmarks showed at the time. I imagine that Teranet will show an increase over the next few months.

The Benchmark doesn't use averages. It uses a different formula that is closer to the median price. Average prices are volatile for the reason you cite.

TiredOfWaiting said...

Actually, I thought the benchmark was showing a recovery of the housing market which started in February. I was waiting to see if Teranet would show the same for April....