Wednesday, November 05, 2008

REBGV October 2008

The formerly 'immune' greater Vancouver housing market caught a cold in May and it has turned into pneumonia as the weather has grown colder this fall.

The number of homes for sale in the area is at record levels.


The level of sales is abysmally low.

Consequently the Months of Inventory, the number of months it would take to sell all the homes currently listed for sale, is in the stratosphere.


This basically means that prices are going to keep going down, down, and down for quite some time.

And down they are falling, nearly 10% since May. Yes TEN PERCENT or $75,000 off the benchmark single family home. $75,000 is a lot of money.


This post is brought to you by the letters P and D.
PRICE DROPS. Here now, here to stay.

25 comments:

yan said...

Not very clear about that.

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fish10 said...

Great Work as usual Mohican

exx said...

Awesome charts as usual, well worth the wait. Many thanks for providing these on a monthly basis, there's nothing else out there that presents this data so well.

van_coffee said...

Hey Mohican -
Thanks again for this. It is much appreciated, and highlights very clearly "where we are" and "where we are going".

When you have a chance, could you post the graph "Vancouver vs. Case Schiller" showing the "decline from peak" vs the various US markets. I love showing this to people when they say "Vancouver isn't doing as badly as the US".......


at which point I reply, "Really, let me show you an interesting graphic"...

I am truly amazed at how quickly the tide has turned.

jesse said...

Here is the seattlebubble Case-Shiller graph with Vancouver's detached benchmark superimposed, for the record.

mohican said...

Thanks jesse for keeping that chart up to date. The Vancouver market is in for the biggest shellacking of all.

We all figured that the longer the bubble was blown up that the bigger it would pop. We blew it bigger than anywhere else and now its going to pop bigger here than anywhere else.

van_coffee said...

Thanks Jesse - much appreciated.

Sam said...

Thank you Mohican for the clear info! Heeeeeere we go!!

Cheers

Jason said...

With the direction of the market, do you have enven a niggling of regret that you didn't wait just a little bit longer to buy? By the way, love the wirk you do, but I must admit that I had a hard time making sense of your rationalization for buying in this bloated pig of a market.

Jason said...

With the direction of the market, do you have enven a niggling of regret that you didn't wait just a little bit longer to buy? By the way, love the wirk you do, but I must admit that I had a hard time making sense of your rationalization for buying in this bloated pig of a market.

van_coffee said...

Jason -
F*ck off.
Van_coffee

alexcanuck said...

We blew it bigger than anywhere else and now its going to pop bigger here than anywhere else.

Perhaps for North America, though I think Las Vegas still has a chance. But If you look at the UK, Spain, Shanghai, a few others, you might come to think that just like other measures, in terms of RE collapses, Vancouver is just not a world class city!
Not to take away from your excellent work, though.
Regards.

mohican said...

You are right alexc. I have not looked too much outside North America for inspiration of how bad it could get. Las Vegas and the SoCal Inland Empire are my inspiration - if Vancouver beats them in terms of price decrease then we will truly be world class in my books!

jason - you should read my rationale for purchasing my home again if you don't get it. My wife and I tease each other about selling the place now because we could sell it quickly for quite a bit more than our purchase price but we really want stability and comfort at this point in our lives and the place we have provides those things at a fair price - equivalent to rent.

So no regrets. I do feel that it is likely that at some point during this cycle our place will be worth less than what we paid but that isn't too important to me. Perfect timing could be pursued if there were no other factors to consider and it still may prove to be elusive to us bears who are attempting it. I think the individual deal that one gets is of high importance since real estate is not fungible.

Warren said...

Interesting drop in listings... what do you think, people are taking a "wait and see" and pulling their property off the market? Weird.

Jason said...

Thanks for the response mohican. I wasn't really trying to be a schmuck, but sometimes things don't come out that well in print. Sorry if I offended anybody, and van coffee, why don't you f*ck off.

ebayhatebusters said...

Hi Mohican,

I'm a recent transplant from Toronto. I luckily sold my place 3weeks before the market dropped in October and now patiently monitoring the Vancouver condo market. Looking for a 2 bedroom near Coal Harbor which will cost you right now anywhere from $475-$550K dependin on location and building. Crazy prices for something less than 800 Sqft.

What's the stat on % of vancouverites who may fall into negative equity situation? I figure if these people with high ratio mortgages would be forced to unload thus putting further downward pressure on pricing.

I read recently 30% of US home owners are in neg equity.

patriotz said...

I figure if these people with high ratio mortgages would be forced to unload

Banks will renew the mortgages even if they are underwater because the CMHC insurance does not have to be renewed.

But people will walk from underwater properties if unable to meet the payments (job loss, etc.) or if they feel it's just not worth it. Happened in the 80's and will happen again.

Patiently Waiting said...

Warren,

The realtors now see additional listings or loser listings as an increasing burden. They are behind any decrease in listings.

tradingedge said...

Guys, I'm 23 and I'd like to buy my first house soon, I have about $120,000 for a down payment, but I am in absolutely no rush to buy, I would much rather buy at a lower price if were are headed much lower. What is the prevailing opinion here? Where do most of you think prices will be in the coming months/years, how much lower are we going to go, and most importantly, when do you think the best time to buy would be.


Thanks a ton guys

RentingSucks said...

Warren and Patienly Waiting,

Listings always decrease this time of year. Expect them to go down until December. We're still way higher than last year int terms of total inventory and as long as that is the case there will be pressure on price. Here's Paul's chart:

http://tinyurl.com/6m9nj4

TradingEdge,

In regards to where people think the market is going. The thing I think is most significant is that the market started to turn before anything really happened to change the situation here. Now there are no more 40 year 0 down mortgages, stock market equity has evaporated, home equity is on the decline, our job market is in for some hurt and there's plenty of room for lending standards to be restricted, interest rate to go up and lots of condos still being completed. I think we had already run out of people that were willing and able to afford before anything changed. I think a 30 percent drop is almost guaranteed. 40-50 percent wouldn't suprise me.

patriotz said...

when do you think the best time to buy would be.

I'm now quite sure we will be at the nominal bottom or very close to it this time in 2010.

Don't buy before the Olympics. There are still too many people expecting a price bounce or the opportunity to make a killing from rentals.

Patiently Waiting said...

trading edge,

We could see prices decline over 50% from the peak. I understand they have already declined 10-15% from last March (the peak). So another 40% or so from present prices, at least.

And when you do buy, be very picky (lots of crap out there) and take the time to find a real estate agent who can really grind down the price for you.

Ice said...

Hi Guys I tried googling to find the Vancouver MLS site. Can someone please point me in the right direction?

Thank you!

tradingedge said...

I appreciate all the responses guys. I'm excited for the opportunity to buy in this terrific city at much more reasonable prices. Hopefully by then I can have in excess of $200,000 for a down payment. Thanks so much for the help guys, and hopefully we can speak further in the future.

tradingedge said...

Also, why do you guys think Richmond is holding up, and do you think it will play catch up?