Sunday, June 03, 2007
Well, a short update on the Greater Vancouver Real Estate inventory and it appears that the sales rate this May is much lower than last year so we are not seeing the drawdown on inventory that we witnessed last year. This sets the stage for a higher Months of Inventory number later this year, and, as I have argued, it will take over 6 months of inventory to see any real negative price pressure on our local housing prices.
Real estate market statistics will be out this week and it will be interesting to see what the trend is - I predict more inventory, lower sales, and higher prices for the time being.
In a slightly related topic, I saw a great piece of analysis over at Seattle Bubble Blog. It talks about various US housing markets and the number of months from the peak of year over year appreciation to negative year over year appreciation. The average among US markets is 19.6 months from peak appreciation rate to negative. Locally, appreciation in Greater Vancouver peaked May 2006 at 21.8% YOY. Appreciation peaked June 2006 in the Fraser Valley at 23.6% YOY. If we are average, this means we should hit negative YOY appreciation by December 2007 or January 2008.