Providing Thoughtful Analysis on the Housing Market
Based on previous years numbers I expect that inventory will not grow as quickly over the next 2 - 3 months.
Just to be different, I will say that it will because just maybe its different this time.
different? it could be, it could be!I think that if psychology has changed we will see a continued increase - along the linear trend line - but if it hasn't and real estate is still the preferred get rich quick scheme in vancouver we will see the inventory growth slow. Time will tell if this year will be different.
I also have a hunch that this year inventory will build through the summer.Of course, this will coincide with the implosion of the Chinese stock market. ;)
Well it doesn't look like there has been a huge change on the demand side, at least not in Vancouver proper. But it does look like supply is shooting up. Faster than usual. My interprestion is that completions are entering the market and some of the discretionary sellers (investors and downsizers) are pulling the plug.There is a bit of a chicken and egg dance. Increased supply leads to flat prices. Flat prices leads to reduced demand which leads to falling prices. Falling prices increases supply, which reduces demand further. Even if new construction stopped today, there is enough in the pipeline to pressure the market for years.
Anecdotally I see that assignments are not selling as fast as they once did, but these graphs still show pretty tight listings data for downtown (the market I'm interested in). I went to a few open houses last week to see what was going on, in both places my girlfriend and I were the only ones there.
We've been following Port Moody, Newport Village, both rentals & sales. The inventory for Newport apartments shot up to 64 when the latest highrise completed in April and has remained constant. I'd guess about 45 or the 64 listings are for the new highrise and they are sitting. In terms of rentals, it is all private speculators (ie: landlords with no experience). We were told by one that they wanted to bill us monthly for the hydro because they wanted the tax benefits of the first-time homebuyer, they would be declaring that they were actually living there. They weren't moving in because they couldn't afford to live there... Other rentals we've looked at have been owned by real estate agents (I think they have done a lot to fuel this boom by purchasing multiple properties themselves), a cab driver and a guy who took the equity out of his house in poco because it "wasn't doing anything for him"... I was about 10 in '81 so I don't know, was this going on then? It seems pretty insane.
I'm starting to see "incentives" in ads for new suburban condos and townhouses. In one case a parking spot supposedly worth 12K IIRC...or was it 21K? Only in Vancouver. HA HAAnother had 9K in luxury features.My beloved Eagle Crest in Queensborough was offering NO GST on the next three purchases of the final phase. Actually it would be the first three sold of that 25 townhouse phase and they've been trying since December. This one is going to be a total disaster.
We were told by one that they wanted to bill us monthly for the hydro because they wanted the tax benefits of the first-time homebuyer, they would be declaring that they were actually living thereWhat? Where are they living now? Are they going to rent the place they live in and rent out the one they own? Or try to claim PR for two properties at once?If you are an alligator feeder, you can deduct the operating loss (which will be considerable) from your taxable income, which is a much bigger benefit than pretending you live there and claiming the HOG. But of course you would be exposed to taxation on all those lucrative capital gains, lol.More cowboys here than the Calgary Stampede.
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