Friday, March 23, 2007

Friday RE Inventory

Inventory is building in many areas in the Lower Mainland as the spring real estate selling season gets into high gear. I have been tracking several areas in the Fraser Valley via the MLS for some time now.


I don't see anything 'crash like' here but there was most definitely an inflection point in inventory in the first week of March.

Looks like we are trending far above last year in the Chipman area even accounting for the adjustments.

It seems VW SFH supply is the same as last year.
Downtown and False Creek North condo supply is 20% higher than 2006.

18 comments:

Jesse said...

Mohican, I appreciate the amount of work you are doing but please try to keep it manageable. It can quickly consume your life if you are not careful.

Jesse said...

You can refer to VHB's last inventory post as a reference. You can see increases through March with a lull in April and a surge in May. Will we see similar patterns this year? For a true slowdown (due to market imbalance), inventory must climb and sales must slow. We shall see.

OnTheIsle said...

yeah mohican, we don't want you burning out and leaving town like VHB,take it easy eh,it's only March for crying out loud... LOL.

mohican said...

I appreciate the kind comments and the concern.

VHB has kindly furnished me with all of the data and charts previously worked on so the process of updating them is not cumbersome.

It looks like we are trending at 20% increase in inventory from last year and lower on the sales side so it seems its going to be a buildup of inventory followed by the price decreases we are all expecting. Time will tell and we will see if that proves to be true.

rebytes said...

Great job, Mohican. Love your site.

Paul said...

There has been a major run on inventory in the last 2 weeks. We will finish the week today with less than a 50% L/S Friday. Looks like over 1000 listing increase for the 2 week period. 11k here we come.

the pope said...

Mohican: Absolutely fantastic to see you running with the hard data and filling in the gap that VHB left - I've been a bit swamped with real life and havent been by for while - this post and the earlier population stats (.8 person per condo) are really great to see.

Freako: I see you posted earlier about an idea you had and an email you might send to us.. I'm intrigued, hows that going?

Paul: thanks for the inventory update - 1k in two weeks is huge.

rentah said...

thanks for the work, mohican

Dave said...

Thank you, Thank you, Thank you
Fridays just weren't the same.
Great job Mohican.

Warren said...

Hey those are some welcome updates, thanks Mohican.

manafromheaven said...

I wonder if buying RE in this weather is related to the idea of shoppin as a cure to mental depression.

bearette said...

Hey Mohic,

If you have VHB charts could you kindly update the iconic VW Condo you are here graph every quarter or so? It gives me hope.

Also, re that evil Quattro ghetto condo FB-fest .... it sold in 67 minutes.

Where do they find these stooges?

M- said...

FWIW, I just listed my place on the market. My realtor dropped off the forms at the real estate board, and apparently they were struggling under a sea of listings to put online. There were a lot of listings that were taken to the GVREB office on Friday that won't make it online until Monday.

OnTheIsle said...

"My realtor dropped off the forms at the real estate board, and apparently they were struggling under a sea of listings to put online. "


Interesting, I imagining that alot of folks have had a couple of weeks to digest all this subprime/mass forclosure stuff and alot of decisions have been made that this has to be the best time in years to sell. For people who have never had this much equity in their life it must be hitting home that this is checkout time.

Warren said...

Also, re that evil Quattro ghetto condo FB-fest .... it sold in 67 minutes.

I heard that as well, ridiculous.

I don't know the overall pricing, but some clown I work with was all over some $120k place. I guess that's the only area you can still get in at that kind of price (albeit for 400sf on a lower floor).

rentah said...

I note that inventory in some mls sectors has grown over the weekend. I can't recall seeing this before. (perhaps have just missed it previously) Do they have some people working overtime?

Warren said...

rentah,

I'm sure they do... seems like there has been a lot of listings lately.

To be fair, this is their busy season in a bear or bull market, so it wouldn't surprise me that they want to get all the listings out there ASAP.

Jesse said...

Interesting that FCN inventory has held steady. I think there is still gas in the tank until more of the behind-schedule presales are ready for occupancy.