Monday, June 08, 2009
Teranet Data in Graphs
I know Jesse will probably post a more comprehensive set of charts regarding the Teranet House Price Index but I thought I would throw these two charts up for discussion. As you may know, Teranet uses the 'sales pair' methodology to track price changes and it has proven to be the most accurate way of determining price changes for real estate.
These charts don't seem to figure in the "spring bump" we've had in the last couple of months. It would be interesting to see them updated.
ReplyDeleteThere is no 'spring bump' in the Teranet data. At least not yet, since March is the most up to date data released by Teranet.
ReplyDeleteThanks, mo for the graphs. I wouldn't display much different except perhaps to throw in a few egregious examples of some US markets as comparison on the same graph. Suffice it to say that Miami is not the steepest drop from peak.
ReplyDeleteSo teranet is down 12% at the end of March and the benchmark is down 12% at the end of May. If the two track each other over the long run then there may not be much of a spring bounce in the teranet data as the numbers only need to go sideways for two months.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the graphs Mohican appreciate all your work. I'm still pretty amazed that our record low interest rates haven't pushed prices higher than they are. It'll be interesting to watch the next couple months when the "pent up" demand is satiated.
ReplyDeleteI think the ML report that said we're in for a long, slow grind downwards is right on the money.
ReplyDeleteThe spring bounce was better than I expected, but given improvement in affordability and the steepness of the initial drop, we shouldn't be surprised to see this "right shoulder" build in what is obviously going to be the last hurrah from the current levels of pricing we see.
Interest rates are slowly going to edge up again - we're going to see the opposite from what's happened here since 1981.
What annoys me is that young couples are being sucked in again and splurging on real estate because their realtor has told them that this is their last chance. Doesn't anyone think more than 5 years ahead?
Oh, and I recently moved to Surrey (still waiting to buy) but there are no shortage of listed properties here. Vancouver may be buzzing (today) but Surrey is doomed.
I expect a long, multiyear grind to a trough.
With the pressure we are seeing in the bond markets, and the resultant interest rates that will occur, I do not think Van RE prices will see the old peak for at least a decade.