tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post6550517903124572617..comments2024-03-26T03:52:23.395-07:00Comments on Housing Analysis: CANADA’S HOUSING BOOM COMES TO AN END - TD Economicsmohicanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-4376381239420211212008-06-28T00:11:00.000-07:002008-06-28T00:11:00.000-07:00On a side note I heard Mike Campbell talk about th...<I>On a side note I heard Mike Campbell talk about this report this morning on CKNW and that guy is going to eat his words in a couple years.</I><BR/><BR/>Are you kidding? That's about as likely as his brother admitting that his "Golden Decade" was just a giant bubble.<BR/><BR/>He'll just find some external excuse for being wrong, like the election of Obama (if it happens). Just what doesn't matter.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-14816648044762926092008-06-27T21:24:00.000-07:002008-06-27T21:24:00.000-07:00What cracks me up is how as the market turns I'm s...What cracks me up is how as the market turns I'm seeing a lot of bank economists talk about how all these things they completely failed to predict are 'unsurprising' - although at least in this case they do admit they didn't foresee the Vancouver listings growth, at least.<BR/><BR/>I expect that when this article turns out to (again) be overly optimistic, the lower than projected sales/price growth numbers will once again be 'unsurprising' (after it happens).<BR/><BR/>As for Gomez, yeah he was really the only mainstream Canadian voice on the issue who was willing to call it as he saw it - ahead of time, rather than waiting until after the fact.Declanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07930743440194279349noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-48967988032996282402008-06-27T11:58:00.000-07:002008-06-27T11:58:00.000-07:00from the G&M article: "'It's a bit unnerving to se...from the G&M article: <I>"'It's a bit unnerving to see how Canadian performance is beginning to look like that of the U.S. two years down the line,' Mr. Porter said."</I><BR/><BR/>BEGINNING to? Dude, Canada was tracking the US performance with a 2 year lag 3 freaking years ago, just then it was prices up up up so you didn't care.jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-31541582455881996392008-06-27T11:10:00.000-07:002008-06-27T11:10:00.000-07:00I miss that Carl Gomez guy. He was a straight sho...I miss that Carl Gomez guy. He was a straight shooter. I guess that is why he gets paid the big bucks as VP of Bentall Group now! <BR/><BR/>TD Econ doesn't want to be alarmist but they could have chosen their words a little more carefully as well as I don't think they really understand the Vancouver market. It just isn't on the radar because it is so different than every other Canadian real estate market I don't think there is any incentive for them to get their heads around it to offer some real valuable insights.<BR/><BR/>On a side note I heard Mike Campbell talk about this report this morning on CKNW and that guy is going to eat his words in a couple years. No crash here. We are different. Blah, blah, blah. Not to mention he got several of his facts wrong and didn't mention some of the underlying concerns or current events in the Vancouver market.mohicanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-53120501058715230142008-06-27T11:08:00.000-07:002008-06-27T11:08:00.000-07:00check this out in the globe:Housing drop looming i...check this out in the globe:<BR/><BR/>Housing drop looming in Canada?<BR/><BR/>“After months of holding fast to the view that Canada will not follow the U.S. into a housing decline, one economist is now raising the spectre of an overall drop in prices north of the border.”<BR/><BR/>http://tinyurl.com/4383vbeconprofhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06830883869018178965noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-30557046591303756142008-06-27T10:56:00.000-07:002008-06-27T10:56:00.000-07:00I think TD economics is the most conservative in i...I think TD economics is the most conservative in it's housing economic papers of all the Canadian banks. However, it doesn't tell the whole story. <BR/><BR/>For example it doesn't capture that even if house prices were to stagnate at 1% - 2% increases year over year for the West... I would imagine that this kind of housing downturn would need to last 8 years before we started to see some better price growth. <BR/><BR/>It also doesn't capture that the West has residential units under construction at nearly unprecedented rates. The risk to a more dramatic downturn due to overbuilding is very real.Radley77https://www.blogger.com/profile/14825702358596382959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-58129135191186992472008-06-27T06:32:00.000-07:002008-06-27T06:32:00.000-07:00Here is a sample of the kind of mention Vancouver ...Here is a sample of the kind of mention Vancouver go from TD Economics when Carl Gomez ran the show:<BR/><BR/><B>But in addressing the matter of a speculative housing bubble, the more important question to answer is: are these robust economic fundamentals in Vancouver strong enough to support such price gains? Based on a number of indicators, we still don’t think so.<BR/><BR/>For example, while Vancouver’s housing market remains quite tight, the elevated level of its irrational exuberance indicator (see box for definition) suggests that inflation-adjusted prices are actually growing faster than what underlying supply and demand conditions would warrant. And despite today’s historically low mortgage rates, affordability continues to deteriorate in Vancouver. For example, five-year mortgage rates averaged a still low 6.38% in the first quarter of this year, yet it took a whopping 42.1% of median pre-tax household income to own an average home in this city. That compares to “only” 39.8% in 1995 when five year mortgage rates were closer to 9.00%. This is not a rational outturn, since lower mortgage rates should help to keep the housing market affordable (just as it has done in most other regions of the country) – not worsen it. <BR/><BR/></B>freakohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06236681769619303395noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-25768657557618312192008-06-26T19:52:00.000-07:002008-06-26T19:52:00.000-07:00What I find most interesting about economic opinio...What I find most interesting about economic opinions of this sort is that one the one hand, they clearly admit that prices in certain markets eclipsed economic fundamentals. On the other hand, they predict that markets will continue to experience price increases despite this disconnect between current prices and fundamentals – yet, through the entire article, I am at a loss to find a rationale for prices continuing to defy fundamentals. <BR/><BR/>Its almost like saying "it will continue to be, because it has been up to this point". Why do these folks fail to recognize that if market psychology drove prices beyond fundamental values, the same psychology will drive them back down? Its not as if they don’t have a world full of precedent to make that leap of faith in projections. Maybe I answered my own question regarding economists with the words “on the other hand”.johnnyrenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02618190483376922226noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-3042339465082866392008-06-26T19:20:00.000-07:002008-06-26T19:20:00.000-07:00Alberta will have further weakness in the near ter...<I>Alberta will have further weakness in the near term, as Calgary and Edmonton will likely see prices continue to fall for another 3 or 4 quarters, dropping 8% to 10% from their peak,</I><BR/><BR/>Hello? Calgary and Edmonton are <B>already</B> down 10% from their peak.<BR/><BR/>This whole report is full of the "predicting the past" weaseling that was heard south of the border two years ago.<BR/><BR/>The West is going to see a bust and Alberta is already well into it. They also don't say anything about how BC's smoke and mirrors economy is supposed to keep moving through a US consumer recession.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-63450760863273369052008-06-26T17:51:00.000-07:002008-06-26T17:51:00.000-07:00Is it my imagination or were they skirting Vancouv...Is it my imagination or were they skirting Vancouver almost completely?<BR/><BR/>What I don't get is that if the issue is affordability causing the slow-down in sales here, how are price increases, single-digit or otherwise, going to lead to an "improvement" in the 2nd half of 2009? I guess we can all expect wage increases or a reduction in transportation costs or something.<BR/><BR/>A very careful choice of words indeed.Lunahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11446994039397246677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-3003693197272234962008-06-26T15:47:00.000-07:002008-06-26T15:47:00.000-07:00Holy weasel words, Batman! Why don't these guys ju...Holy weasel words, Batman! Why don't these guys just come out and say "permanently high plateau"?jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.com