tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post6521184862570883938..comments2024-03-26T03:52:23.395-07:00Comments on Housing Analysis: Tsunamis - VHB Makes an Encore Appearancemohicanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comBlogger52125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-76421395415129831192008-05-15T00:33:00.000-07:002008-05-15T00:33:00.000-07:00Surely, at this rapid inventory growth, the first ...Surely, at this rapid inventory growth, the first signs of a price break on the downside cannot be that far off.BobbyBearhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16924617743055281389noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-8709560450189620112008-05-14T18:29:00.000-07:002008-05-14T18:29:00.000-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.tulip-Mania2https://www.blogger.com/profile/01482331067557664647noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-24273850472543030122008-05-14T17:44:00.000-07:002008-05-14T17:44:00.000-07:00Check out the article on record high MLS listings....Check out the <A HREF="http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/05/14/realestate.html" REL="nofollow">article</A> on record high MLS listings. From the article:<BR/><BR/><I>"Average prices in formerly red-hot Calgary and Edmonton fell from March levels and </I><B>are now down slightly from last year</B>."jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-53357583441952049192008-05-14T08:05:00.000-07:002008-05-14T08:05:00.000-07:00ah tulips. It has been a long time since I have he...ah tulips. It has been a long time since I have heard your 'tick tock'. Methinks the alarm is about to start ringing . .. .Van Housing Bloggerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08547691078400829048noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-9513707374806685582008-05-13T18:30:00.000-07:002008-05-13T18:30:00.000-07:00Supply and demand trump hubris, inevitably. Calgar...Supply and demand trump hubris, inevitably. Calgary and Edmonton were the first to fall in Canada because they have the most elastic supply. Also demand turned out to be a lot more elastic then people thought - Alberta now has negative net migration.<BR/><BR/>Note though that elasticity of supply and demand affects only the timing of the cycle, not the outcome. We're next.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-80436475150768031572008-05-13T16:28:00.000-07:002008-05-13T16:28:00.000-07:00As a commodity exporting nation we could be the la...<I>As a commodity exporting nation we could be the last R/E market to go down.</I><BR/><BR/>I think the primary determining factor in how long a local market bubble can continue inflating is the level of hubris of the market participants. Vancouverite hubris truly knows no bounds...Swirlymanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04514608676600597837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-85431141548955692932008-05-13T15:50:00.000-07:002008-05-13T15:50:00.000-07:00TICK TOCK, TICK TOCKTICK TOCK, TICK TOCKtulip-Mania2https://www.blogger.com/profile/01482331067557664647noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-87449569778161820052008-05-13T13:44:00.000-07:002008-05-13T13:44:00.000-07:00Alberta is a good example of how quickly negative ...Alberta is a good example of how quickly negative YOY % change values can show up. Imagine in as little as two months from now what the headline in Alberta's MSM will be. <BR/><BR/>If you think negative YOY numbers will put the fear of God into lenders, well, you'd be right.jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-61473003040438513862008-05-13T12:18:00.000-07:002008-05-13T12:18:00.000-07:00I think Edmonton is down about 15% off peak and Ca...I think Edmonton is down about 15% off peak and Calgary is down about 13%.<BR/><BR/>Note that the peak was last summer, so YOY doesn't give you the whole picture.<BR/><BR/>This is a bigger drop in the first year of decline than <B>any</B> US city except Miami, and note that the first year isn't over yet.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-38473367432463218312008-05-13T11:14:00.000-07:002008-05-13T11:14:00.000-07:00Patriotz,How much has the Alberta market gone down...Patriotz,<BR/><BR/>How much has the Alberta market gone down in the last year?<BR/><BR/>Here in Vancouver it still is churning.BobbyBearhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16924617743055281389noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-41602609623557406712008-05-13T10:39:00.000-07:002008-05-13T10:39:00.000-07:00Neat graph. Wild numbers.Would those apartments b...Neat graph. <BR/><BR/>Wild numbers.<BR/><BR/>Would those apartments be mostly or partly pre-sales?seekerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07753011334110855220noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-91455899502087288732008-05-13T10:35:00.000-07:002008-05-13T10:35:00.000-07:00Patriotz, a very good point that's not been stated...Patriotz, a very good point that's not been stated so baldly on these blogs. Calgary and Alberta should indeed be expected to be the most expensive and constantly increasing prices in Canada, in the eyes of a Martian visiting Earth, given the fact that oil is the single most desirable commodity. Thus it should indeed lead the Canadian market (after all, Ontario formerly would have, but we all know their economy is on the rocks).<BR/><BR/>The only thing that BC (bless it) has led this country in is drugs, goofy behaviour, scams, and crooked politicians. Oh, and hysterical property speculation.Mangohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12783357836567969061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-70754610655694706622008-05-12T18:08:00.000-07:002008-05-12T18:08:00.000-07:00As a commodity exporting nation we could be the la...<I>As a commodity exporting nation we could be the last R/E market to go down</I><BR/><BR/>The RE bust is already well under way in Canada. It started a year ago in Alberta, which of course produces Canada's most valuable commodity, oil.<BR/><BR/>Whether a country or a locality exports commodities is beside the point. Either housing is properly priced based on rents and incomes or it isn't.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-34028359495132165052008-05-12T16:36:00.000-07:002008-05-12T16:36:00.000-07:00Not Vanc. RE but of GREAT interest to any investor...Not Vanc. RE but of GREAT interest to any investor. A new column has started at RGEMonitor, featuring guest writers on various topics. I think it will be must-read stuff.<BR/>http://www.rgemonitor.com/financemarkets-monitor<BR/>I think you need to (free) register to get more than a teaser. <BR/><BR/>Nothing of interest there if every penny you don't have is tied up in a Vancouver condo, and you just KNOW that external factors will NEVER impact "The Best Place on Earth"! Others may wish to check it out.<BR/> I'm posting at a few other spots as well. I think this is very, very good bookmark site.alexcanuckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08605337369229736033noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-83786089668856731202008-05-12T15:46:00.000-07:002008-05-12T15:46:00.000-07:00Thanks for the courtesy, Patriotz. Reading my post...Thanks for the courtesy, Patriotz. Reading my post later I was afraid I zinged you too much. You've got some great things to say. Keep it up.<BR/><BR/> I do like Mish. Do you think he will call bottom at some point, or stay Permabear? Broken clock and all that. I'd like to know when to turn bullish again, and find it hard to believe ANYONE!alexcanuckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08605337369229736033noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-55419163285802863512008-05-12T13:05:00.000-07:002008-05-12T13:05:00.000-07:00The credit reserval continues. Spreading. The Fed ...The credit reserval continues. Spreading. The Fed saved the system from collapse and complete chaos, but little they can do on the reversal. Why?<BR/><BR/>Banks are now getting very worried about who they lend to and why. Canadian banks will also do that but apparently they will find Canada's credit peak first. Canada's version of extreme capitalism.<BR/>We lag the U.S. and other countries as well. Are we last? As a commodity exporting nation we could be the last R/E market to go down. A commodity boom is the last part of an economic expansion.<BR/><BR/>The great wave approaching is heard by some, but ignored by most. Why? Because that is the way it always works. :)<BR/><BR/>Gotta love those cycles.BobbyBearhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16924617743055281389noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-54355632182477927802008-05-12T11:19:00.000-07:002008-05-12T11:19:00.000-07:00Yes Alex, Mish deserves a tip of the Hatlo hat for...Yes Alex, Mish deserves a tip of the Hatlo hat for those links. He really knows where to find the zingers :-)patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-27885309308343686342008-05-12T09:47:00.000-07:002008-05-12T09:47:00.000-07:00Thanks for the congrats tony. I didn't realize I ...Thanks for the congrats tony. I didn't realize I had been around that long either! My blog archive only goes back to Jan 2007 - hmmm . . . I wonder what happened to those other years?!!?<BR/><BR/>My awareness of the potential housing bubble in Vancouver dates back to the July 2005 article put out by Carl Gomez of TD Economics and I found the Vancouver Housing Blog shortly after that. I guess that makes me a housing bubble aware person for nearly 3 years now.mohicanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-64828917344486683022008-05-12T09:06:00.000-07:002008-05-12T09:06:00.000-07:00don't just keep saying that it's inevitable for th...<I>don't just keep saying that it's inevitable for the past 4+ years.</I><BR/><BR/>Congrats on 4+ years of running this blog Mohican, didn't know you'd been around so long dooming and glooming. :)<BR/><BR/><I>OK, you're saying a "tsunami" is coming - tell me when</I><BR/><BR/>If Mohican and VHB could forecast exactly when prices will tumble they wouldn't be here blogging for geniuses like you. Are you trying to say that you predicted the price run up? If you did what are doing trolling around here?<BR/><BR/><BR/><I>All I'm saying is that an analogy between climate behavior and RE market doesn't add credibility to the writer.</I><BR/><BR/>Then find a different blog to read, or start your own.Tony Danzahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11834617529220173312noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-84223924148631431282008-05-12T07:56:00.000-07:002008-05-12T07:56:00.000-07:00Patriotz must have forgotten to give credit for wh...Patriotz must have forgotten to give credit for where he got his excellent links from.<BR/>http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/05/housing-hell-in-spain-and-oz.htmlalexcanuckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08605337369229736033noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-6129737403673629902008-05-12T02:01:00.000-07:002008-05-12T02:01:00.000-07:00Helldorado: How expats dream life in the Spanish s...<A HREF="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/worldnews.html?in_article_id=565763&in_page_id=1811" REL="nofollow">Helldorado: How expats dream life in the Spanish sunshine has turned into a property nightmare</A><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,23680992-5013110,00.html" REL="nofollow">Sydney properties halve in price</A><BR/><BR/><I>Aussie Homeloans boss John Symond, admits to advising first homebuyers to look for mortgagee sales in order to buy an affordable property.<BR/><BR/>"You've got to be smart in today's market," Mr Symond said.<BR/><BR/>"Prices are so high that many people will never own their own home, so you've got to be creative.<BR/><BR/>"There's a great opportunity to buy properties at distressed rates. If you can't afford to live in them right now you can rent them out. Then, over time, you should get some capital growth and a foot in the door."</I><BR/><BR/>And you thought Vancouver had the most world-class RE asshats? Our usual suspects would be hard pressed to top that gem.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-61252452420674507512008-05-11T19:10:00.000-07:002008-05-11T19:10:00.000-07:00Sorry - my bad. That is effin' nuts.Sorry - my bad. That is effin' nuts.mohicanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-29563604127792701522008-05-11T17:08:00.000-07:002008-05-11T17:08:00.000-07:00Mohican: That's apartments only that I've graphed....Mohican: That's apartments only that I've graphed.Van Housing Bloggerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08547691078400829048noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-16150933158818271762008-05-11T15:59:00.000-07:002008-05-11T15:59:00.000-07:00Thanks for the updated chart VHB. I think your sc...Thanks for the updated chart VHB. I think your scale is wrong though. There is currently over 27,000 units under construction.mohicanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-87978099511441096572008-05-11T14:57:00.000-07:002008-05-11T14:57:00.000-07:00VHB, that chart's insane...VHB, that chart's insane...M-https://www.blogger.com/profile/11157896639592232047noreply@blogger.com