tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post6451109540125077971..comments2024-03-26T03:52:23.395-07:00Comments on Housing Analysis: Royal LePage warns of real estate 'irrationality'mohicanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-78839433799834408122010-04-13T09:29:45.967-07:002010-04-13T09:29:45.967-07:00“In that moment, the money didn’t matter. Only the...“In that moment, the money didn’t matter. Only the condo mattered. Now, all the money I have, goes towards paying the loan. I live for the loan.”<br /><br />http://wp.me/pcq1o-IRAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-59232507323848945552010-04-13T08:51:17.096-07:002010-04-13T08:51:17.096-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-66685478772622549762010-04-13T08:50:51.491-07:002010-04-13T08:50:51.491-07:00When this "death of equities" article wa...<i>When this "death of equities" article was written the S&P was at 108.00 -- we're currently at 1,196. That's a 10 fold increase.</i><br /><br />The point you don't get is that the article was written toward the end of a period of high inflation. Over that period the stock market had a negative real total return. The big boom in the stock market began <b>after</b> inflation was beaten.<br /><br />Inflation is bad for the stock market. Indeed that was the subtitle of the article itself.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-54934756312486738172010-04-12T20:35:47.227-07:002010-04-12T20:35:47.227-07:00Patriotz,
I'm really not sure what you'r...Patriotz, <br /><br />I'm really not sure what you're trying to get at by alluding to the "Death of Equities" article originally written in 1979. When this "death of equities" article was written the S&P was at 108.00 -- we're currently at 1,196. That's a 10 fold increase. Being a bear pays off every now and then but, so does playing roulette or Keno.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-73519009624468623192010-04-11T15:40:16.997-07:002010-04-11T15:40:16.997-07:00Not sure what you are exactly trying to say. I ag...Not sure what you are exactly trying to say. I agree past performance does not guarantee future performance and that stocks could be done but the original article was 30 years ago. It is interesting that we have many of the same symptoms as then except that inflation supposedly low. I have heard it said that we have changed the way we measure inflation so much that we are indeed in a high inflation enviroment even if the official numbers don't say so.<br /><br />That being said there is some weird scary stuff still happening all over the world. If you want to really freak yourself out watch the move "Collapse" with Michael Rupert. Check out this slideshow about the top 20 worst debt to GDP ratio nations too:<br /><br />http://www.cnbc.com/id/30308959/<br /><br />Anyway if you had a large amount of cash right now what would you invest it in? I can't think of much that doesn't have a potentiall of a huge downside. There is some chance that things will continue as before with some bumps along the way. <br />If we are nearing something catastrophic then I don't think there is much you can do anyway. Are we at the point where we need to be building bunkers and sniper towers?AndrewJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04813082701244060724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-52283220030704313812010-04-11T09:26:38.206-07:002010-04-11T09:26:38.206-07:00while stocks generally trend upward by more than i...<i>while stocks generally trend upward by more than inflation to compensate for risk.</i><br /><br />Google "death of equities".patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-39932699870478499502010-04-11T08:02:46.827-07:002010-04-11T08:02:46.827-07:00Hey Chad. Have you ever read a Random Walk Down W...Hey Chad. Have you ever read a Random Walk Down Wall Street? He convincingly proves that charting for stocks doesn't work. Any small advantage you may gain is obliterated by trading costs. Real Estate is starting to feel to me like the same random walk. I think the only difference is that Real Estate generally trends up by inflation while stocks generally trend upward by more than inflation to compensate for risk. If this is the case then no one can predict anything over a short period of time (even 5-10 years). So we will get back to trendline (perhaps even undershooting it) at some point but who knows when or how long.AndrewJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04813082701244060724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-33287857014684176942010-04-10T05:13:11.515-07:002010-04-10T05:13:11.515-07:00Does anyone know why Montreal is so cheap (relativ...<i>Does anyone know why Montreal is so cheap (relative to the rest of canada)?</i><br /><br />1. Differences in fundamentals. Montreal has high property taxes and Quebec has high income taxes. Quebec also has strong rent controls. These will result in lower price/rent and lower price/income at fair valuation.<br /><br />2. Trends and risks. Separatism, low population growth, high provincial debt, and the most rapidly aging population in Canada mean fundamentals are likely to deteriorate in the future.<br /><br />3. Cultural differences. Most Quebeckers do not have a preference for home ownership for its own sake, and are thus reluctant to pay more to buy a property than to rent it. In other words it's less bubbly.<br /><br />1 and 2 are valid economic reasons for lower prices long term. Bubbliness or lack of it can result in differences in the short term but not the long term, since all bubbles eventually pop.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-63393318791198730152010-04-10T02:26:40.128-07:002010-04-10T02:26:40.128-07:00Yes... just like 5...10...15 years agoYes... just like 5...10...15 years agoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-29313134074060812992010-04-09T13:58:11.374-07:002010-04-09T13:58:11.374-07:00Man when things get this crazy you know the end is...Man when things get this crazy you know the end is near. <br /><br />Does anyone know why Montreal is so cheap (relative to the rest of canada)?<br /><br />As far as I know incomes arent much different there and it's at least as desirable to live in as Toronto. (well, in my opinion anyway)Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16361217381016612518noreply@blogger.com