tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post6096136218781033600..comments2024-03-26T03:52:23.395-07:00Comments on Housing Analysis: Shareholder Letter from Bill Millermohicanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-45494421061459659362008-08-05T17:40:00.000-07:002008-08-05T17:40:00.000-07:00I used to follow AMZN and I think it is one of Leg...I used to follow AMZN and I think it is one of Legg Mason's primary holdings. I've been short on AMZN since mid 2007... with a Price to Earnings ratio of over 100 how does one exactly call AMZN a value holding?<BR/><BR/>I just wanted to point out that fund names like "Legg Mason Value Trust" are just names.<BR/><BR/>In this letter he seems to be reaching out to value investors, but at the same time doesn't fully explain why the fund has performed so poorly (grrrrr).<BR/><BR/>I think also, that the financials did not show technical signs of capitulation before July 15th that was necessary for a recovery. Legg bought lots of Freddie prior to that. I have looked at buying banks earlier this year as well, but even with dividends that look nice, the reality is that the dividends will likely be cut so that they can raise more capital and there is still lots of risk. As such, I've continued to stay away from banks.<BR/><BR/>The biggest plays for 2008 would have been to go short on banks, and long on oil.<BR/><BR/>I thought the following article was interesting regarding a "bunge" or a bear market analogue of a bubble:<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0396c014-5a7b-11dd-bf96-000077b07658.html" REL="nofollow">Financial Times - Bank Stocks Back From The Abyss</A><BR/><BR/>I'm looking at Deutsche Bank now as one potential investment. Metrics are as follows:<BR/><BR/>P/E ratio: 9.98<BR/>Forward P/E ratio: 9.83<BR/>Dividend Yield: 7.65%<BR/>Price to book value: 0.80<BR/>5 Year net income growth rate: 78%<BR/><BR/>It seems cheap to me... unless you think that earnings forecasts are way off. Does anyone else think this is a value trap or a cheap stock?Radley77https://www.blogger.com/profile/14825702358596382959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-67510225866515797192008-08-05T16:00:00.000-07:002008-08-05T16:00:00.000-07:00Bill Miller doesn't need to worry about short ...Bill Miller doesn't need to worry about short term performance if he is right over the longer-term. Yes, some clients will leave him who probably didn't really understand what they were getting into but that happens. I'd say that his criteria for choosing investments is still sound and will likely lead to long-term outperformance again. We will see.<BR/><BR/>He's got some street cred since he beat the S&P500 for something like 17 of the last 20 years.mohicanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-16881770109699666602008-08-05T15:49:00.000-07:002008-08-05T15:49:00.000-07:00At -40% it's no wonder he's lamenting about losing...At -40% it's no wonder he's lamenting about losing clientele. mohican, what do you think about that?<BR/><BR/>OT, FVREB stats out. Benchmarks: <BR/>detached -1.4% MOM<BR/>townhouse -2.2%<BR/>apartment -0.5%<BR/><BR/>I also want to commend FVREB for explicitly correcting the data on their graphs. They obviously put some thought into it and I belive handled it extremely well in the end.jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-77233524383268967582008-08-05T15:47:00.000-07:002008-08-05T15:47:00.000-07:00How's this for a "blood in the streets&qu...How's this for a "blood in the streets" portfolio:<BR/><BR/>XHB<BR/>XLF<BR/>F<BR/>GM<BR/><BR/>No more than 5% in any one issue or closely correlated group of issues (eg F & GM). I will freely admit the thought of going long debt-ridden bloated pigs like GM and F is freaky as hell - however complete equity wipeout can be mitigated with long-dated puts for <10% of the purchase price.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08329458590618552578noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-86370257480907453592008-08-05T15:39:00.000-07:002008-08-05T15:39:00.000-07:00The mind boggles at "a group standing around" that...The mind boggles at "a group standing around" that would casually include such investment gods like Buffet, Miller, and Davis. The great gobs of wisdom that these guys feel obligated to sprinkle on the "macho slobs" of the world like holy water, may sound cool and sacred, but are in fact not more than common sense, that even the merest of mortals don't need to be reminded of.<BR/><BR/>So, I guess we're still on our own to decipher the market upheavals as best we can.<BR/><BR/>Non of my stink-bids for beaten-up commodity stocks got filled today...maybe tomorrow.macho slobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15640891497806482996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-15613097695565585722008-08-05T15:25:00.000-07:002008-08-05T15:25:00.000-07:00If the criteria is "buy what noone else wants" the...If the criteria is "buy what noone else wants" then doesnt' it look pretty simple? Stay away from puzzling areas like energy, and load the boat with homebuilders and financials.<BR/><BR/>I mean, we're al agreed those are the streets where blood is flowing, right?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08329458590618552578noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-86507232094213459812008-08-05T14:34:00.000-07:002008-08-05T14:34:00.000-07:00Bill's fund is down nearly -40% in the last year a...Bill's fund is down nearly -40% in the last year and -7% per year for the last 5 years on average.mohicanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.com