tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post5425700456243157873..comments2024-03-26T03:52:23.395-07:00Comments on Housing Analysis: House Price Comparisonsmohicanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-20775956381526022992010-04-25T09:45:44.862-07:002010-04-25T09:45:44.862-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-59697516380831041192010-04-22T16:54:34.638-07:002010-04-22T16:54:34.638-07:00Hey VHB, I have been surprised at how correlated t...Hey VHB, I have been surprised at how correlated the sales and benchmark data have been to date. Money is still available and the sales haven't yet fallen off a cliff.<br /><br />Most likely I see significant inventory growth with a below-average performance for sales going forward. That will give 10-20% drops in a year, maybe more if mortgage rates continue to increase.jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-45670158269409762482010-04-22T14:50:47.705-07:002010-04-22T14:50:47.705-07:00Awesome - been meaning to update for a while now -...Awesome - been meaning to update for a while now - no time though. Thanks! <br /><br />A MOI of 10 or more is completely realistice by the end of summer. Sales drop seasonally in summer which will, combined with the higher inventory, raise the MOI to 6 or more. 6+ MOI means no price increases. Once price increases stop, sales will drop, once sales drop they will drop fast and the MOI will shoot straight up. By fall we should see substantial price decreases unless, somehow, sales can remain high.mohicanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-72329538153017916072010-04-22T13:00:51.501-07:002010-04-22T13:00:51.501-07:00Have I ever told you that these are my favourite g...Have I ever told you that these are my favourite graphs?<br /><br />So, price changes hit zero at around 6 MOI and get serious when we are north of 10 MOI.<br /><br />Two comments.<br /><br />With inventory of 20K, we only need sales to decrease to 2K to get 10 MoI. Not crazy to think sales will fall to that level by June. The average for the last 4 Junes is 3720.<br /><br />Second, Jesse I am curious whether you think that events are so uniquely messed up right now that we are going to go off the regression line. What is unique? a) CMHC rule changes b) realistic fear of big rate hikes over next 12 months. Both of these might lead people to want to get out NOW and drop their price more quickly. But, this would not fit the model line. What do you think, Jesse?Van Housing Bloggerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08547691078400829048noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-3079521669346817522010-04-22T12:35:04.563-07:002010-04-22T12:35:04.563-07:00@macho slob: I think that listings are increasing ...@macho slob: I think that listings are increasing does not bode well for future sales. I'm asking myself the following questions:<br /><br />1) How many sellers recently bought another property BEFORE they listed for sale?<br /><br />2) How many sellers will buy another property soon AFTER they list for sale?<br /><br />3) How many current buyers are buying without selling?<br /><br />4) How many sellers are selling without buying?jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-4653652552741969122010-04-22T11:53:18.774-07:002010-04-22T11:53:18.774-07:00If sales remain robust???
That's the kicker.
...If sales remain robust???<br />That's the kicker.<br /><br />After the smart money has sniffed out the peak and is bailing, how long can it possibly take for potential buyers to figure out that there might be a reason for the explosion of new listings.macho slobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15640891497806482996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-36087838209899365862010-04-22T10:49:27.607-07:002010-04-22T10:49:27.607-07:00Man you guys are setting yourselves up for a major...Man you guys are setting yourselves up for a major FAIL.<br /><br />I'd be extremely surprised if things don't take a turn for the worse in BC. If they don't, I can't imagine anyone wanting to live in such an expensive city...unless they are a bunch of snobs and douches who feel entitled to do so...much like San Francisco and Manhattan.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com