tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post4636848598757516767..comments2024-03-26T03:52:23.395-07:00Comments on Housing Analysis: Approach to Market Risksmohicanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-77030681718566335222007-07-21T10:46:00.000-07:002007-07-21T10:46:00.000-07:00Hmm, I'm glad BNS is my only big bank holding (sto...Hmm, I'm glad BNS is my only big bank holding (stock).<BR/><BR/>On the investing front, digi I think you're on the right track with homebuilders, but again fundamentals still have to come in to line.<BR/><BR/>Rather than investing in them when nobody wants to, think about it when nobody else is thinking about it. For example, in 2 years, when RE is still flat/wallowing and nobody is talking about it, these blogs are long gone.. then buy.Warrenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00586650821846362670noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-39576270811007103532007-07-21T10:35:00.000-07:002007-07-21T10:35:00.000-07:00It just made me wonder about our CDIC - as I have ...<I>It just made me wonder about our CDIC - as I have before.</I><BR/><BR/>Rest assured, the feds will do whatever it takes to back up CDIC, up to and including the BoC printing enough money to honour all insured deposits.<BR/><BR/>CDIC-insured deposits are really a very small slice of the financial universe in Canada. It's just mom-and-pop stuff. The real money is elsewhere.<BR/><BR/>The real fracas for bank failures would be the non-insured depositors asking for a bail-out. They got it when Northland and CCIB (Alberta-based) failed in the 1980's. When BCC (Band of Crooks and Criminals) failed in the 1990's, I think they didn't.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-48969718970636075222007-07-20T22:48:00.000-07:002007-07-20T22:48:00.000-07:00beta and digi - very observant comments - I do agr...beta and digi - very observant comments - I do agree that much of what Warren Buffett has said has been misapplied. In order to actually invest like Warren Buffett, you need to do research like him and he does an immense amount of research before making a purchase decision. He never uses what the 'market' feels about a sector or stock to help him decide on what to purchase and that is where most of his quotes come from. The actual investing strategy is grounded in some pretty rigourous financial metrics: balance sheet analysis, P/E ratio, P/B ratio, Return on Equity, etc, etc. To rely only on his quotable quotes to make investment decisions is pretty faulty.<BR/><BR/>rereader - I don't choose what gets advertised on the blog - it is all auto-content based from google's or amazon's algorithms - I suppose I could customize it more but I just don't really care that much.mohicanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-30861861115959893362007-07-20T22:33:00.000-07:002007-07-20T22:33:00.000-07:00Mohican, why don't you advertise financial plannin...Mohican, why don't you advertise financial planning on your blogRereaderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01625378641706252055noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-57064057909706012222007-07-20T18:13:00.000-07:002007-07-20T18:13:00.000-07:00So how does one spot true value? The fear/measure ...<I>So how does one spot true value? The fear/measure sounds great in principal, but how can you judge the timing right? For example: builder and lender stocks are chopped down across the US as they look at more fallout from the housing bubble. Nobody wants to touch these stocks, does that mean its the right time to buy?</I><BR/><BR/>Digi, I am by no means a master investor, but IMHO, no. The fundamentals simply do not back up such a move. The homebuilding pie is still shrinking in the US. I think Buffet-alike would start buying the builders if a housing turnaround started that wasn't being reflected in the valuations of the builders because people still thought housing was a 'bad investment'.Robertohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03338787957419791384noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-61840375137005412802007-07-20T12:09:00.000-07:002007-07-20T12:09:00.000-07:00So how does one spot true value? The fear/measure...So how does one spot true value? The fear/measure sounds great in principal, but how can you judge the timing right? For example: builder and lender stocks are chopped down across the US as they look at more fallout from the housing bubble. Nobody wants to touch these stocks, does that mean its the right time to buy?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04809963975092911791noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-50536857953728761032007-07-20T10:25:00.000-07:002007-07-20T10:25:00.000-07:00"be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy o..."be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy only when others are fearful"<BR/><BR/>Probably the most misapplied quote in the history of investing, used by every loser with a dime to buy crap on the way down and imagine they're like Buffet while doing so.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15910317878726017663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-3305948432240560372007-07-20T10:17:00.000-07:002007-07-20T10:17:00.000-07:00Great Post (mostly because it panders to the what ...Great Post (mostly because it panders to the what I believe in) :-)<BR/><BR/>Lately I have had more concerns about the way my portfolio was structured and how it would be impacted should a recession occur in the states. Very recently I restructured based on a book "Crash Proof" (PETER D. SCHIFF) which made a lot of valid arguments for a downturn in the (US) economy, and made a lot of interesting points for investing in Canada (yay). <BR/><BR/>Just wondering if anyone else out there had a chance to look at it yet, and how safe they think hiding out in Australian/Canadian mining markets is till it all blows over?wombatoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07266550813138882140noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-19981988805779646392007-07-19T18:23:00.000-07:002007-07-19T18:23:00.000-07:00I scanned your links above, and that is what conce...I scanned your links above, and that is what concerns me(though maybe I am seeing mountains where only molehills exist).<BR/><BR/>I liked the one line in the 4th link that talked about all the derivitives (?) being "AAA", but recall reading (somewhere here, or a link) about how tranches work, and that there are tranches rated "AAA" of tranches rated "A".<BR/><BR/>It seems like a lot of smoke and mirrors to me.solipsisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11585532276216559502noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-54193976447732219922007-07-19T18:17:00.000-07:002007-07-19T18:17:00.000-07:00Thanks mohican. I did understand that the writer w...Thanks mohican. I did understand that the writer was referring to the American FDIC. It just made me wonder about our CDIC - as I have before.<BR/><BR/>You are very right about bigger problems if the big 5 start going belly up, and I was wondering how distinct that possibility is after reading your piece (or a link from one of your pieces) about Quebecor and the bond market, etc.solipsisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11585532276216559502noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-14275589720756486612007-07-19T17:52:00.000-07:002007-07-19T17:52:00.000-07:00solopsist - that poster was referring to the FDIC ...solopsist - that poster was referring to the FDIC in the USA and not the CDIC in Canada. The risk in the US is contained within the OTC derivatives market which is obscene. <BR/><BR/>Your 'nut' is protected by CDIC in the event of bank failure up to $100,000. Check it out <A HREF="http://www.cdic.ca/index.cfm/ci_id/1218/la_id/1.htm" REL="nofollow"> here </A>. In the event of a 'major bank' failure we would have more problems than just whether or not we are insured. Smaller institutions have and will go under from time to time.<BR/><BR/>I am not naive to the risk that exists in the system though. The future profits of the banks are very much at risk in the coming years if these OTC derivatives unwind in an unforeseen manner. <BR/><BR/>Some banks seem to take on too much risk from time to time. <BR/><BR/>See - <A HREF="http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/237044" REL="nofollow"> here </A>,<A HREF="http://www.thestar.com/article/165666" REL="nofollow"> here </A>,<A HREF="http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20070622005553&newsLang=en" REL="nofollow"> here </A>, and <A HREF="http://ca.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2007-07-09T185002Z_01_N09296330_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-CIBC-SUBPRIME-COL.XML" REL="nofollow"> here </A>.mohicanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-6132178213006654452007-07-19T17:02:00.000-07:002007-07-19T17:02:00.000-07:00Another great post. Thanks.and thanks for the link...Another great post. Thanks.<BR/><BR/>and thanks for the link el bubb. <BR/><BR/>As I was reading it, and looking at "my" bank, I was wondering about splitting up my nut, because I was wondering at CDIC's backing. I don't think that the guvmint could cover everyone's deposits. Then I read the comment below:<BR/><BR/><I>Disaster when these guys go under. Glad that everything is PhDIC insured. BTW who insures the PhDIC ?</I> <BR/><BR/>Then again, with a negative savings rate environment, there won't be much to cover in the event of bank collapses.solipsisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11585532276216559502noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-16903927041961512032007-07-19T15:43:00.000-07:002007-07-19T15:43:00.000-07:00el bbub - that chart of big US banks is freakin' c...el bbub - that chart of big US banks is freakin' crazy. I don't even know what to say - just nuts. According to the poster - JP Morgan Chase has $59 Trillion in Notional OTC Derivatives.mohicanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-68543357560446704852007-07-19T15:34:00.000-07:002007-07-19T15:34:00.000-07:00Good post!very inspiring, hehe.OT:Blowup risks on ...Good post!<BR/>very inspiring, hehe.<BR/><BR/><B>OT:</B><BR/><A HREF="http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4245&mn=123470%20&pt=msg" REL="nofollow">Blowup risks on canadian banks.</A><BR/><BR/>There's also a US risk chart.<BR/>What do you think?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14863824663125535913noreply@blogger.com