tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post4534970367681300123..comments2024-03-26T03:52:23.395-07:00Comments on Housing Analysis: Intrade Bets on Vancouver Housingmohicanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-23540002194303169682010-08-27T13:43:40.335-07:002010-08-27T13:43:40.335-07:00Hey Austin, the problem with these betting shops i...Hey Austin, the problem with these betting shops is getting enough critical mass.<br /><br />The last downturn in 2008 took 8 months for Teranet to fall 10% from peak (<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_rt16FZ_z1N8/Snx0v5O0chI/AAAAAAAACA8/z6zLhdCULFs/s1600-h/Case+Shiller+Total+Decline+From+Peak+Select+Cities.JPG" rel="nofollow">chart</a>). I would expect, if sales remain muted, that the Teranet HPI will be off around 5% by the end of 2010.jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-66037268562568399802010-08-27T00:43:35.648-07:002010-08-27T00:43:35.648-07:00You can make bets as low as $10. I am very surpr...You can make bets as low as $10. I am very surprised after all the extremely confident proclamations about where the Real Estate market in Vancouver is headed, nobody seems to want to make money off of their oracular powers.<br /><br />Ah well, I'm going to go lower the odds of 143 by year end. After the recent pop for June, it will now take a 10% drop in order to hit that price. Seems less likely now.Austinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15875098749857611790noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-66880718343705421002010-08-24T13:11:41.736-07:002010-08-24T13:11:41.736-07:00"This is about speculation, fear and greed. D..."This is about speculation, fear and greed. Don't ever forget that or you will lose your shirt."<br /><br />This is the smartest thing I have ever seen Jim post here.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16361217381016612518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-10501836770993979642010-08-21T02:07:30.219-07:002010-08-21T02:07:30.219-07:00I think BOC long bonds would be better hedge for a...I think BOC long bonds would be better hedge for a housing crash personally. However the colapse in the curve recently I would be cautious.buff_butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13312280863888753900noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-28105879898465140592010-08-20T16:58:54.923-07:002010-08-20T16:58:54.923-07:00on a serious note... i think the odds are in favou...on a serious note... i think the odds are in favour of Vancouver market hitting 143 by dec 2010... CREA stats show a 5+% drop in prices... i doubt the teranet HPI will be much differentAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-88866318596180770492010-08-20T16:54:23.519-07:002010-08-20T16:54:23.519-07:00where did all the housing bulls go? i mean the rea...where did all the housing bulls go? i mean the real-estate agents...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-44212601882975214532010-08-20T09:37:17.386-07:002010-08-20T09:37:17.386-07:00"This is about speculation, fear and greed.&q...<i>"This is about speculation, fear and greed."</i><br /><br />Betting on Vancouver's housing market? Pshaw.jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-61781767539064691292010-08-20T09:22:12.376-07:002010-08-20T09:22:12.376-07:00"Spread the word, if nothing else for the goo..."Spread the word, if nothing else for the good of science."<br /><br />Jesse,<br /><br /><br />This isn't science. This is about speculation, fear and greed. Don't ever forget that or you will lose your shirt.JimTanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13480972517925246528noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-31230059002483994142010-08-20T07:53:12.492-07:002010-08-20T07:53:12.492-07:00The only way this bet can be a "hedge" i...The only way this bet can be a "hedge" is if there are decent odds. If betters decide there is a high probability of the bet paying off there is not much margin and requires too much money to be useful as a hedge. If the event is deemed improbable there is some value in taking the bet as a hedge. However if the odds are in a mid range it means the event is uncertain and still probable. But miss by one point and the bet fails. Eg if prices bottom at 122 and stay flat the hedger gets the shaft. I think the 2010 bet could be too close to call fwiw.<br /><br />This does not mean distortions cannot occur so keep your eyes peeled.jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-57091087318210630862010-08-20T07:13:50.107-07:002010-08-20T07:13:50.107-07:00Fair enough, Jesse. Still, the bet size would have...Fair enough, Jesse. Still, the bet size would have to be absurdly small.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-49034641532444590092010-08-20T00:33:14.983-07:002010-08-20T00:33:14.983-07:00Who said anything about a hedge? LOLWho said anything about a hedge? LOLjessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-81796730483989803182010-08-19T23:44:11.620-07:002010-08-19T23:44:11.620-07:00Ya right good luck using this as a hedge. If your ...Ya right good luck using this as a hedge. If your house is worth $1,000,000 you won't be able to find 1% of the liquidity for a hedge. If this instrument or something like it were more liquid it would be an absolutely amazing tool.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-2996134013697246272010-08-19T20:55:08.274-07:002010-08-19T20:55:08.274-07:00I know how I would bet but there needs to be at le...I know how I would bet but there needs to be at least one other party involved on the other side. Spread the word, if nothing else for the good of science.jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-13036369307785605892010-08-19T20:45:03.624-07:002010-08-19T20:45:03.624-07:00Actually, there are a lot of smart professionals i...Actually, there are a lot of smart professionals in any futures/options market. It is likely that they will be ahead of you.<br /><br />Anyway, I wonder how Jesse is going to bet?JimTanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13480972517925246528noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-83772953210299451492010-08-19T20:43:30.480-07:002010-08-19T20:43:30.480-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.JimTanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13480972517925246528noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-61769541578648805542010-08-19T20:32:06.123-07:002010-08-19T20:32:06.123-07:00this is awesome news... i was just thinking about ...this is awesome news... i was just thinking about it... how do I go about shorting the housing market... if I buy a house, then I can hedge my exposure...<br /><br />this is Canada's version of shorting the mortgage market :DAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com