tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post3837667812779168911..comments2024-03-26T03:52:23.395-07:00Comments on Housing Analysis: Value Investing in the Current Environmentmohicanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-81201521489801327852008-11-04T12:16:00.000-08:002008-11-04T12:16:00.000-08:00The key to investing currently is a decent assessm...The key to investing currently is a decent assessment of the probablities at play over the next 12 to 24 months.<BR/><BR/>Let's assume the following:<BR/><BR/>15% chance the market falls another 40%.<BR/>15% chance the market falls another 30%<BR/>15% chance the market falls another 20%<BR/>15% chance the market falls another 10%<BR/>20% chance the market is flat<BR/>10% chance the market is up 10%<BR/>10% chance the market is up 20%<BR/><BR/>If you have $100,000 to allocate toward equities and the above probabilities are accurate then how much should you have in equities currently?<BR/><BR/>If I read correctly this is what Mr Grantham is suggesting - play the probabilities because nothing is certain.mohicanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-56109105724559605242008-11-03T23:17:00.000-08:002008-11-03T23:17:00.000-08:00Huh? So are we at bottom yet? S&P's a good...Huh? So are we at bottom yet? S&P's a good buy under 1000 but it might go down to 520?Asunhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04281988095872209820noreply@blogger.com