tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post321841186011466529..comments2024-03-26T03:52:23.395-07:00Comments on Housing Analysis: Opening the bottom windowmohicanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-74521420213864924152009-01-21T01:18:00.000-08:002009-01-21T01:18:00.000-08:00An apparatus for opening and closing window blinds...An apparatus for opening and closing window blinds converts rotary motion about a vertical axis of a vertical rod into rotary motion about a horizontal axis of a horizontal member. A lever is attached to one end of the horizontal member. A drive gear is attached to an opposite end of the horizontal member. A driven gear is attached to a first end of a vertical member. The driven gear is operatively engaged with the drive gear. The vertical member is perpendicular with respect to the horizontal member. An adapter housing is attached to an opposite end of the driven gear and is used to attach a bottom end of the vertical rod thereto...<A HREF="http://www.toronto-condominiums.ca" REL="nofollow">Condominiums Toronto</A>Toronto Condohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11102035568552288460noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-53772633383962254412009-01-03T19:47:00.000-08:002009-01-03T19:47:00.000-08:00I have used the rule of thumb that buying a proper...I have used the rule of thumb that buying a property with 25% down and it carries itself. This is a variation of the price to rent ratio.<BR/><BR/>Based on current sales, which I am not sure truly reflects the market as sales volumes are so low, this suggests that single detached housing has 10-15% downside and condos 20-30%.Cam Hui, CFAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-85082619932281331292008-12-31T01:15:00.000-08:002008-12-31T01:15:00.000-08:00This is the best comments roll I've come across in...This is the best comments roll I've come across in ages. Van Housing Blogger, you are a legend.<BR/><BR/>I'm a fan of the price-to-rent ratio as a leading indicator. We'll approach the bottom as prices fall in line with rental rates. I believe an undershoot of the fundamentals is a real possibility because of the broader economic situation. If we're in a deflation-oriented recession, which I believe we are, then asset values will have a very difficult time pushing upward. How long we stay in a bottom market -- that is, how long we scrape along -- will depend on how quickly the economy gets out the recession. I share Stephen Jarislowlsky's fear of deflationary recessions.condohypehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04629381605914770446noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-52325491194958552292008-12-28T03:01:00.000-08:002008-12-28T03:01:00.000-08:00I am speculative of the new construction measure s...I am speculative of the new construction measure simply because this was quoted in edmonton and has since passed. I think with extreme inventories reduction in construction doesnt seem to have an effect because other forces are bringing the houses to market as well such as soon to be distressed sellers. <BR/><BR/>-I would watch inventory to drop to normal levels.<BR/><BR/>-Job creation I found to be a huge variable. Its tough to get an accurate source though.<BR/><BR/>-Watch for when the REITs start putting money in??<BR/><BR/>-Offering to Wanted ratio's on kijiji :Pbuff_butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13312280863888753900noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-15383429049594007562008-12-27T16:36:00.000-08:002008-12-27T16:36:00.000-08:00I would say when the statistical unemployment rate...I would say when the statistical unemployment rate drops below 10 %. For a number of years we will see unemployment in the double digits. When it will return to the great 9% unemployment (it will make headlines) is when prices will begin to recover. By the way the real unemployment will be twice the stat ! My guess and that is all it is a wild guess; 2013Stratamanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17562001878583509939noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-9148399319822384452008-12-27T13:50:00.000-08:002008-12-27T13:50:00.000-08:00After the tiresome gong show on RET, it's nice to ...After the tiresome gong show on RET, it's nice to find some thoughtful replies to an interesting topic. I'm also glad to see that more people are accepting the fact that we could see a very long bottom.<BR/><BR/>I've felt all along that the continued uptrend of our market long after US markets peaked was totally irrational and that our crash would be sharper by playing catch-up....that seems even more likely now, with the collapse of the global economy.<BR/><BR/>I would not be surprised to see the true bottom in 2009, with fear and panic causing the market to overshoot on the downside, and re-test those lows several times and languish for years. <BR/><BR/>Previous recessions tell us that stock markets always sniff out the bottom well before housing markets, as homeowners are usually the biggest vitims of a recession.<BR/><BR/>After years of a long drawn out bottom, I think the recovery will be so mild that it will be anticlimatic.macho slobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15640891497806482996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-13791159669326847692008-12-27T11:54:00.000-08:002008-12-27T11:54:00.000-08:00Further to Valuemonekey's comment, the housing mar...Further to Valuemonekey's comment, the housing market bottom can be gauged quantitatively by following the supply/demand ratio. The bottom should be around 6 months list/sale ratio. Presently, Greater Vancouver home supply/demand is over 12 months supply. <BR/><BR/>As happened in 1994/95, the housing cycle hit bottom around 1998. You can <A HREF="http://www.relocationbc.com/stats/08NOV/vancouver.pdf" REL="nofollow">view the graph here</A> (last page of REBGV average price graph). This will take 24 to 36 months to play out if the same cycle is repeated as for the peak for 1994/95. <BR/><BR/>This time around, there are more uncertainties like credit tightening, affordability problem and uncertain interest rates situation after the market recovers.james-wonghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13622572156482409732noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-6256209654100904862008-12-27T07:35:00.000-08:002008-12-27T07:35:00.000-08:00"The bottom will be well and truly in when NOBODY ...<I>"The bottom will be well and truly in when NOBODY is talking about real estate any more."</I><BR/><BR/>That's all some families talk about. Without real estate conversation I wonder what will fill the void.jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-52414155850532478602008-12-27T00:06:00.000-08:002008-12-27T00:06:00.000-08:00To further Octagonian's thoughts, I think an impor...To further Octagonian's thoughts, I think an important psychological marker of a bottom will be maximum loss of confidence in the asset class. <BR/><BR/>An example would be reliable survey data indicating historically high levels of agreement with a statement like, "Real estate is a poor investment." (Or something a decent pollster might come up with.)Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01103625744750161588noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-43773770262007495622008-12-26T23:51:00.000-08:002008-12-26T23:51:00.000-08:00The bottom will be well and truly in when NOBODY i...The bottom will be well and truly in when NOBODY is talking about real estate any more. This IS quantifiable. I mean NOBODY. No more reality shows, not even re runs. Home and Garden has changed formats. That sorta scenario. The bottom will be in when nobody is talking about the bottom being in. The point of utter, psychological exhaustion. <BR/>And for fun, I predict we see this circa 2011 (coincidentally two years after the most reliable US bears call the American bottom); and it will be a long, languishing bottom, perhaps another five or six years until MODEST price appreciation kicks in again. Another peak? No earlier than 2020.John Collisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06224569566655043954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-56709704583929632362008-12-26T21:34:00.000-08:002008-12-26T21:34:00.000-08:00I would expect as much speculative froth to come o...I would expect as much speculative froth to come off the RE market on a % basis as the rest of the capital markets worldwide as easy credit filled every balloon to the max equally.<BR/><BR/>The current exit and massive asset deflation will take the air out of everything and we're just seeing the beginning in the lower mainland. Just wait until all the owls show up and the only thing the sellers hear is 'To who, to who'.<BR/><BR/>All the major global indices have retraced back to their 1998 levels and some would suggest they are still overvalued and headed lower.<BR/><BR/>With historically low interest rates, the spread between the over night rate and 5 year posted rate is increasing as banks are becoming more and more reluctant to hand out money.<BR/><BR/>While the OJ's and Renney's of the world pump away into the void with the 'buyer's market' hype, inventories sit amongst developments where subcontractors are being forced to roll back prices as giant holes slated for elevator cores and under ground parking are filling with Vancouver's biggest ever snowfall, soon to melt and put everything underwater.sluggohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15475292779127845191noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-14535236766060025722008-12-26T19:34:00.000-08:002008-12-26T19:34:00.000-08:00I am looking for completions to exceed starts for ...I am looking for completions to exceed starts for 24 months. Once starts start to outpace completions again, we will know that the bottom is likely in or a close enough approximation. Additionally, I will continue to look at the existing home months of inventory for a clue. When MOI drops below 8 in the spring selling season I'll know that we are in a more normal market with buyers still having the upper hand.mohicanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-53402200874530971782008-12-26T19:20:00.000-08:002008-12-26T19:20:00.000-08:00I'm not sure about the exact bottom, but I'...I'm not sure about the exact bottom, but I'd start being interested when months of inventory start shrinking back to < 10 months. You'd still be well within a buyers market, but I'd say its a market in recovery. If you're trying to get in during that point where the market undershoots fundamentals and fear reigns, then I'd look at average rental rates. Personally, I don't track this, but its seems to me to be the best way to track RE market fundamentals.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11335031137153700812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-68792809055872733622008-12-26T18:19:00.000-08:002008-12-26T18:19:00.000-08:00I'll go out on a limb and say the bottom won't be ...I'll go out on a limb and say the bottom won't be in until the savings rate definitively crosses zero again (in the + direction). The process of deleveraging and saving is the antipode of leveraged speculation. Once the savings rates are sustainable, prices should be back to sustainable as well.<BR/><BR/>Construction IMO is a hard one to gauge only because the units being produced in this boom are smaller than before. A better measure would be bedrooms under construction. Also there are always dormant units that can be commissioned to fill demand (as can flat sharing). Below 10K is probably as good a guess as any for nominal bottom.<BR/><BR/>Why not use cap rates?jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.com