tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post2986871561007300357..comments2024-03-26T03:52:23.395-07:00Comments on Housing Analysis: Greater Vancouver Market Snapshot May 2012mohicanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-73264241515076123942012-06-11T12:04:34.294-07:002012-06-11T12:04:34.294-07:00"Once we get any kind of clear evidence of pr...<i>"Once we get any kind of clear evidence of price drops, sentiment will be all that is necessary for ongoing drops"</i><br /><br />Absosmurfly, pop growth is the means by which prices tip but not a requirement; if population growth were to continue upwards something else would step in. But I might go so far as to argue that, given BC's dependence on construction employment for economic growth, population growth volatility is almost a surety.<br /><br />As I mentioned in the post, "it is now a matter of predicting the timing and rate by which prices will drop. Extending this, it looks like the first catalyst towards lower prices will be lower population growth."jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-62217824498571037172012-06-11T11:53:04.362-07:002012-06-11T11:53:04.362-07:00vreaa, there is clear evidence population is growi...vreaa, there is clear evidence population is growing at a slower rate than a few years ago. That inherently reduces dwelling demand. <br /><br />We can compare to 12 or so years ago -- when population growth was in a nadir -- and see the same effects: lower sales volumes and higher inventory. (REBGV inventory then was well above 20K, higher than seen in 2008.)<br /><br />I do not discount other factors contributing to malaise, including tighter capital in China and access to loans locally, but the simple "fewer bums in beds" thesis is, in my view, indisputable, and would naturally lead to conditions we are currently seeing.<br /><br />An interesting aside, one might expect that certain factors can be predicted by competitive markets and if population growth were known to be declining -- and the data are there for all to see -- new supply would be curtailed to predict this. Well this is historically not the case at all. New supply, in aggregate, is brought online with little consideration for a slowdown in population growth. A fascinating look at efficient markets at work.jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-28290372615069622002012-06-11T08:17:52.354-07:002012-06-11T08:17:52.354-07:00Thanks, jesse.
I'm curious as to why you would...Thanks, jesse.<br />I'm curious as to why you would single out pop.growth as the factor that may be causing the stall.<br />Isn't it just as likely, or more likely, to have been due to the (albeit relatively subtle) recent credit tightening? (Banks more skittish; not quite as easy to get the jumbo mortgage now).<br />---<br />Once we get any kind of clear evidence of price drops, sentiment will be all that is necessary for ongoing drops; regardless of pop.growth (provided latter is within historic range).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-15533009837127204282012-06-08T15:18:47.157-07:002012-06-08T15:18:47.157-07:00Here is the Teranet HPI though you can get it from...<a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0Aku6wWaKdvsQdHo1aGVHV3ppUzdfVWMxSzRnVk9WYnc&oid=6&zx=vn96vtu7jiqc" rel="nofollow">Here</a> is the Teranet HPI though you can get it from the Teranet website as well.<br /><br />I don't track benchmark prices of SFH produced by REBGV any more, just because I haven't bothered updating my dataset with the new revised metric. Garth (Turner?)'s claim is likely looking at the average price, which is disingenuous because it heavily depends upon sales mix. <br /><br />I don't follow greaterfool.jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-2712894117912108592012-06-07T20:08:47.024-07:002012-06-07T20:08:47.024-07:00Nice blog. Is there a chart of the SFH prices in ...Nice blog. Is there a chart of the SFH prices in Vancouver? Trying to verify or disprove Garth's 12% decline claim, I have a feeling it's made up.<br /><br />By the way, could you add househuntvictoria.blogspot.ca as a housing blog for Victoria BC? Check it out we have some good stuff, and victoriastruth hasn't been active for years.Leo Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.com