tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post8949487098130607792..comments2024-03-26T03:52:23.395-07:00Comments on Housing Analysis: Fraser Valley Real Estate - February 2009 Statsmohicanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-46397520441810641052009-03-06T20:40:00.000-08:002009-03-06T20:40:00.000-08:00If, in the event we face moderate to high inflatio...<I>If, in the event we face moderate to high inflation in a relatively short period given the recent rises in money supply, what's your opinion on housing prices.</I><BR/><BR/>Down, big time:<BR/><BR/>1. Huge increase in interest rates.<BR/>2. Wages will not keep up with inflation in a recession.<BR/>-> 3. Affordability even worse than today.<BR/><BR/>The optimal scenario for house prices going forward is general price stability. Either inflation or deflation is negative. And needless to say, even the optimal scenario doesn't look good.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-27539527068408800172009-03-06T16:28:00.000-08:002009-03-06T16:28:00.000-08:00mohicanGreat blog here.Just one question. Everyon...mohican<BR/><BR/>Great blog here.<BR/><BR/>Just one question. Everyone and their dog has an opinion of the deflation/inflation argument going forward into 2009/2010. I lean towards the inflationary camp myself.<BR/><BR/>If, in the event we face moderate to high inflation in a relatively short period given the recent rises in money supply, what's your opinion on housing prices.<BR/><BR/>I can't quite answer my own question, though, I suppose, if we're in for our own lost decade it won't matter.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-50117099767885620122009-03-06T09:34:00.000-08:002009-03-06T09:34:00.000-08:00Jimtan - if you observe the relationship, shown in...Jimtan - if you observe the relationship, shown in chart, between MOI and price changes, then you will plainly see that when MOI is high, prices fall and conversely when MOI is low, prices rise. Simple.<BR/><BR/>If we make some basic assumptions that the market won't get worse but won't get better either in terms of sales and active listings, then we can project MOI for the remainder of the year. If we assume that things will not get worse or better, then MOI should be in the 7-9 range through March, April and May. This level indicates stable prices to me. After the normal spring rush of activity, sales typically level off and fall while active listings rise through the summer and fall. If we follow the same pattern as the last few years then this would indicate that MOI will peak above 20 in the late fall and this indicates severe negative price pressure.mohicanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-62502303006717244062009-03-06T09:08:00.000-08:002009-03-06T09:08:00.000-08:00“By performing some simple seasonal analysis it se...“By performing some simple seasonal analysis it seems that months of inventory will probably bottom this year at the 7-9 MOI level in either April or May. This does not indicate upward price pressure and by later in the year we could be looking at some very significant price declines.”<BR/><BR/>Mohican,<BR/><BR/>Please amplify this statement. What are your MOI projections for 'later in the year' that would cause prices to fall significantly. By a strange coincidence, I am looking to buy in spring when everybody is selling.JimTanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13480972517925246528noreply@blogger.com