tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post4053329604429085151..comments2024-01-05T04:31:53.418-08:00Comments on Housing Analysis: Labour Market Problems in BCmohicanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-73462112088319494102009-02-08T10:49:00.000-08:002009-02-08T10:49:00.000-08:00Good post, VHB. Home ownership as borrowed demand...Good post, VHB. Home ownership as borrowed demand from the future is one of the least talked about important issues in Vancouver real estate. Ironically, it's those who bought during the boom that may find themselves "priced out" -- as hostages to inflated, long-term mortgages.condohypehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04629381605914770446noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-28961914129946033572009-02-08T07:56:00.000-08:002009-02-08T07:56:00.000-08:00An indicator such as baltic dry bouncing off a low...An indicator such as baltic dry bouncing off a low is encouraging, except when you look at just how absurdly low that low was, and think that the rise off it was solely due to technical forces. The Baltic Dry simply cannot be that low, as it makes no sense to operate a ship at those level. The owner would lose less money by leaving the ship at anchor. At the shipping rates the index low indicates, you can't even pay for fuel.<BR/><BR/>So I'm waiting for more than that to think about a recovery. But then again, I'm not drowning here, so I can ignore random straws.alexcanuckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08605337369229736033noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-69829816990352915812009-02-07T21:37:00.000-08:002009-02-07T21:37:00.000-08:00Every time I come across a forecast from Pastrick,...Every time I come across a forecast from Pastrick, at first, I get confused, then angry and then I laugh.<BR/><BR/>Tick Tock, Tick Tocktulip-Mania2https://www.blogger.com/profile/01482331067557664647noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-81553329812210598602009-02-07T13:32:00.000-08:002009-02-07T13:32:00.000-08:00I own and operate ATMs. Thus being made to wait fo...I own and operate ATMs. Thus being made to wait for hours on long distance help is frustrating. One local call centre guy asked me for a job. Now I am thinking of switching my business network to a service provider with a local backup.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-65635887437199662402009-02-07T10:50:00.000-08:002009-02-07T10:50:00.000-08:00And yet. the Baltic Dry Index just turned around! ...And yet. the Baltic Dry Index just turned around! You can see the graph in the Flirting With Depression thread. Cheers.JimTanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13480972517925246528noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-36047186801509572622009-02-07T09:39:00.000-08:002009-02-07T09:39:00.000-08:00Reductimat, we may see some consumer price inflati...Reductimat, we may see some consumer price inflation due to a weak CAD and monetary expansion. Almost all significant consumer prices are determined externally to BC.<BR/><BR/>But the price of anything that depends on the ability of BC consumers to borrow and spend is going nowhere, and housing is right at the front of that.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-58300046062988828182009-02-07T01:17:00.000-08:002009-02-07T01:17:00.000-08:00Before I begin, I'll state it out front, I'm not a...Before I begin, I'll state it out front, I'm not an Economist. Wait, that might come across as bragging...<BR/><BR/>Regardless of what/who I am, I still can't imagine an inflationary scenario unwinding in the near to medium future. Unless someone finds a way to reset the clock, wipe out peoples memories and set everyones networth to +$20k, people are done spending.<BR/><BR/>The majority of people are spooked and tapped out. The rest of the naive and ignorant are only months away from the same. Nothing the government does will be able to get them to spend like drunken sailor again for another decade.<BR/><BR/>People are reaquainting themselves with the fact that if you want something, you have to work for it.<BR/><BR/>So all that said? If you have money, wait. If you think you like to gamble, there are plenty of leveraged and non-leveraged ETFs you can play. If you have balls of neutron stars, hit the options markets.<BR/><BR/>And as far as the doom-and-gloomers are concerned, we'll get through it. Unfortunately for you.ReductiMathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08380672072877671175noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-31475825737677260082009-02-06T19:55:00.000-08:002009-02-06T19:55:00.000-08:00"So are these 300 included in the unemployment sta...<I>"So are these 300 included in the unemployment statistics. "</I><BR/><BR/>Typically if you get laid off, you are not employed at the company but you aren't necessarily actively looking for work (you either receive severance or are taking time off). You are therefore not part of the workforce until you are either employed or actively looking for work (or on temporary layoff) -- neither employed nor unemployed.<BR/><BR/>These people are accounted for in the labour force survey by there being a decrease in the labour force.JinMalmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12817256167479715782noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-29157533473919784282009-02-06T18:22:00.000-08:002009-02-06T18:22:00.000-08:00What are good ways to perserve your downpayment ca...What are good ways to perserve your downpayment cash (if you don't have to dip into it to survive that is)? My worst scenario is there is a snap back to inflation after all the stimulus is done but they can't raise interest rates without causing further catastrophe.<BR/><BR/>It almost seems like land might be your best bet assuming you can buy something mortgage free. Then at least you have somewhere to live.<BR/><BR/>Not too keen on stocks because if companies aren't making money stocks are unlikely to go up. Gold is a commodity and the traditional hedge against inflation but it's not a no brainer to me as to why. <BR/><BR/>My general sense is that it IS that bad this time with a smaller and smaller chance of a Y2K bug ending.AndrewJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04813082701244060724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-46246528712027027482009-02-06T17:27:00.000-08:002009-02-06T17:27:00.000-08:00When will people clue in that economists' forecast...When will people clue in that economists' forecasts ALWAYS understate things? Always.<BR/><BR/>Most "economists" are not objective scientists but rather PR shills. PR is the most disposable function of boom times; I wish people -- MSM and the blogosphere -- would dispose of economist forecasts for the forseeable future.Maurice Troy Lamonthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00747515334222966003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-78549780695612725012009-02-06T15:17:00.000-08:002009-02-06T15:17:00.000-08:00Thanks for the easy to understand numbers, charts ...Thanks for the easy to understand numbers, charts and analysis.<BR/>Question. Telus moved its call center to the Phillipines; 300 were laid off, because they were either part-timers or contractual,no benefits and no EI. So are these 300 included in the unemployment statistics. <BR/><BR/>CGI moved its operation and call center to India. Recently Dell moved its call center from India to US, because no one can understand the thick accent. Rather than cutting down excessive bonuses and expenses of top executives, these companies nickle and dime their workers until their customers abandon them and they lost the market share.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-25759675566623796172009-02-06T13:24:00.000-08:002009-02-06T13:24:00.000-08:00I enjoy your blog very much. Hubby is in one of th...I enjoy your blog very much. <BR/><BR/>Hubby is in one of the canary-in-a-coalmine industries, hit by the downturn in new project planning & construction already in August 08. So far 50% of staff have been laid off, remaining staff have agreed to less hours (= less pay), and other same-sector companies are having similar contractions. Work has simply dried up. The sector is getting hammered right now. Our personal spending has tightened up considerably, and retailer friends are suffering very badly. Main Street is in trouble, even if the politicos don't get it yet.<BR/><BR/>How can this not affect people's ability to afford their current (or future mortgages) if they are already over-extended and unemployed to boot?! How can this not affect the Metro housing market and BC economy and our 'fundamentals' in general? My questions is; how long and how far, and I agree with Mohican's assessment re: timeline.<BR/><BR/>On a (un)related note, house across the street (YVR westside) went up for sale in late Fall 08 for $1.2m (assessed value). Aggressive marketing, open houses every weekend (both days) and... nothing. Price drops to $949K by late Jan.09 in time for Chinese New Year - nothing. For Sale sign is now gone and For Rent is in its place... Needs to drop at least 40% more to afford it as a FTHB.westygrrlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03473457097748925591noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-45757695146409936242009-02-06T11:27:00.000-08:002009-02-06T11:27:00.000-08:00Wow. The labour force CONTRACTED by 17.4K while un...Wow. The labour force CONTRACTED by 17.4K while unemployment increased by 17.8K. This is partly because termination contracts will reduce employment but not immediately increase unemployment. Definitely a leading indicator of future rising unemployment.<BR/><BR/>Also 68K drop in full time employment but only 35K drop in employment. Can someone say "reduced hours"?jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-22367056612761213632009-02-06T10:52:00.000-08:002009-02-06T10:52:00.000-08:00Poor Helmut.Although, I've always wondered what it...Poor Helmut.<BR/><BR/>Although, I've always wondered what it's like to have a job where you can be wrong all the time and still get paid, much less not be fired.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04552666254356506181noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-5588629188950247252009-02-06T10:47:00.000-08:002009-02-06T10:47:00.000-08:00Yes indeedy - hoocoodanode.2009 is going to be ver...Yes indeedy - hoocoodanode.<BR/><BR/>2009 is going to be very bleak indeed and 2010 doesn't have much chance of being much better in BC either. Perhaps by the end of 2010 we will see an improvement in the economy and employement picture. The next 18 months are going to take a lot of people by surprise.<BR/><BR/>Construction, finance, real estate, and retail jobs are all going to get absolutely hammered. Double digit unemployment is assured. <BR/><BR/>Interestingly enough it is likely that the forestry and mining sectors will lead us out of this as the world economy comes back ahead of the BC economy and demand for those things rises out of the pit it's in now. There are also some fairly major projects around the province that could start providing some big employment numbers in the latter part of 2010.mohicanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-31742443496811556422009-02-06T10:36:00.000-08:002009-02-06T10:36:00.000-08:00Pastrick has the pieces of the puzzle, most notabl...Pastrick has the pieces of the puzzle, most notably his previous comments on the declining spend on major project inventory. One of these days he will put 2 and 2 together but I like to be optimistic.<BR/><BR/>In one of your previous posts you showed what the unemployment situation would be without the construction/RE boom. It is not just construction that is getting hit now. Other industries, a long time out of phase in their business cycles, are now terrifically in phase.jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-11348652724795353862009-02-06T09:57:00.000-08:002009-02-06T09:57:00.000-08:00Hat tip to the Pope for the link to the Pastrick s...Hat tip to the Pope for the link to the Pastrick story in the Sun.Van Housing Bloggerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08547691078400829048noreply@blogger.com