tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post3607105050733168909..comments2024-03-26T03:52:23.395-07:00Comments on Housing Analysis: REBGV Chart Extravaganzamohicanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-66556298939004235902008-04-11T08:59:00.000-07:002008-04-11T08:59:00.000-07:00Actually it isn't anywhere near as bad as I said a...Actually it isn't anywhere near as bad as I said above. I messed up and was using only the SFH numbers and not the condo numbers and then comparing them to the total inventory. If you add the condo and SFH number together you get the usual pattern of inventory not quite increasing as much as the list - sell. Sorry about that guys.<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the numbers Paul they are very much appreciated.AndrewJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04813082701244060724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-49181041094485092242008-04-09T22:19:00.000-07:002008-04-09T22:19:00.000-07:00Paul"Often properties come back on market or expir...Paul<BR/><BR/>"Often properties come back on market or expire,get cancelled or get terminated."<BR/><BR/>I'd just arrived at that conclusion when I scrolled down to your answer. But it does raise an interesting point. If enough sales are falling through due to lack of financing or whatever to show up on the charts it could mean that things are already getting pretty ugly.Mark Fengerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01922616270777907779noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-18170314233448756942008-04-08T21:46:00.000-07:002008-04-08T21:46:00.000-07:00Tick Tock, Tick TockTick Tock, Tick Tocktulip-Mania2https://www.blogger.com/profile/01482331067557664647noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-35688787670539445742008-04-08T20:45:00.000-07:002008-04-08T20:45:00.000-07:00Great stuff Mohican.I agree with your conclusion. ...Great stuff Mohican.<BR/><BR/><B>I agree with your conclusion. Feb to Mar has not seen a rise in Months of Inventory for the past few years and indicates that perhaps things will change this year.</B><BR/><BR/>Unless this is a false start (we've had a few) we are about to see the mother of all inventory buildups. So far it has an uncanny resemblance to the inventory buildup that occured in Phoenix, San Diego, Las Vegas etc in early 2006. The year over year sales trend will be very telling.<BR/><BR/><B>Sales usually lag about 2 weeks.</B><BR/><BR/>As the market slows, could we not expect this to increase as fewer buyers make unconditional offers?freakohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06236681769619303395noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-13046911584438025852008-04-08T09:46:00.000-07:002008-04-08T09:46:00.000-07:00Sales usually lag about 2 weeks.Sales usually lag about 2 weeks.Paulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08069424275563757552noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-70004396191715596782008-04-08T09:45:00.000-07:002008-04-08T09:45:00.000-07:00Renting sucks:Everything is correct. Often propert...Renting sucks:<BR/><BR/>Everything is correct. Often properties come back on market or expire,get cancelled or get terminated. That can account for the daily numbers not adding up easily. Often listings expire at midnight and I post the data after 9pm.Paulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08069424275563757552noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-70632118669942586982008-04-08T09:31:00.000-07:002008-04-08T09:31:00.000-07:00I seem to remember the sell/list numbers our out o...I seem to remember the sell/list numbers our out of step with each other by about 2 weeks. If that's the case then the sale numbers in 2weeks time are going to be very, very bad to make up this difference assuming the inventory numbers and listings are correct and up to date.AndrewJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04813082701244060724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-43403958561328663742008-04-08T09:27:00.000-07:002008-04-08T09:27:00.000-07:00I usually chalk differences in that direction up t...I usually chalk differences in that direction up to expiries and it has always happened. This is a differences in the other direction.<BR/><BR/>I can understand a little bit of discrepancy but for the last week it seems huge.<BR/><BR/>April 1st to April 7th numbers:<BR/><BR/>New listings: 749<BR/>Sales: 263<BR/><BR/>Total invetory increase should be 486.<BR/><BR/>Actual increase looking at the inventory numbers is 740. That's 254 extra listings. Is inventory that out of sync with the sell/list numbers?AndrewJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04813082701244060724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-49702039900548233962008-04-08T09:15:00.000-07:002008-04-08T09:15:00.000-07:00RentingsucksDon't know about Paul's numbers overal...Rentingsucks<BR/><BR/>Don't know about Paul's numbers overall, but on April 7th there were 351 listings and 85 sales, a difference of 266. Total inventory increased less than this, however, at 185.johnnyrenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02618190483376922226noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-40132477616162846322008-04-08T08:15:00.000-07:002008-04-08T08:15:00.000-07:00A question about Paul's numbers.How come the overa...A question about Paul's numbers.<BR/><BR/>How come the overall inventory is going up more than the list minus sell number? It seems very strange.AndrewJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04813082701244060724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-35330274350001993872008-04-07T23:14:00.000-07:002008-04-07T23:14:00.000-07:00Wow, nice indeed Mohican! Our local REIC might wa...Wow, nice indeed Mohican! <BR/><BR/>Our local REIC might want to consider upping their spin dosage - some people are starting to figure this out.wizardofozziejurockhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14889563194337494886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-47208991316591118692008-04-07T04:28:00.000-07:002008-04-07T04:28:00.000-07:00Thanks Mohican. Great work!Thanks Mohican. Great work!Etienne de Cochonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03919103855415622925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-56239276930604168752008-04-06T21:59:00.000-07:002008-04-06T21:59:00.000-07:00Wow! Thanks Mo!I hadn't realised how much things ...Wow! Thanks Mo!<BR/><BR/>I hadn't realised how much things had really changed this year until I saw your charts!mightymousehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05559963346043610318noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-3192618250169542112008-04-06T19:15:00.000-07:002008-04-06T19:15:00.000-07:00Hi Mohican - I fogot to thank you for putting this...Hi Mohican - <BR/>I fogot to thank you for putting this together. I don't often post on your site, but am a regular "lurker".<BR/><BR/>Is there much difference on the correlation coefficient in the monthly data vs the quarterly data? I would expect it to be modestly lower (absolutely), but should still be close.<BR/><BR/>An R squared of 0.64 is pretty high for a single explantory variable, and given the stationary natre of the data series, it is actually probably a legitimate R squared (lots of times these are spurious and the result of using non-stationary data).<BR/><BR/>Anyway - good work, and it's great to see some old school "VHB Style" graphs posted.<BR/><BR/>VCvan_coffeehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14738166821362446247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-49649714828177849452008-04-06T16:47:00.000-07:002008-04-06T16:47:00.000-07:00Nice work Mohican.Similar trading range of 12 to 2...Nice work Mohican.<BR/><BR/>Similar trading range of 12 to 22 weeks that happened in the U.S. for several years before sharply increasing. Of course as MOI increased dramatically the pressure on prices intensified.<BR/><BR/>The MOI chart at CalculatedRisk was a smoother chart probably because of the huge number of transactions done in the U.S.<BR/><BR/>A very strong start for listings this year. The winds of change are a blowin'?<BR/><BR/>Magic number 27 weeks of MOI?BobbyBearhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16924617743055281389noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-60606778139912219562008-04-06T16:14:00.000-07:002008-04-06T16:14:00.000-07:00craig - I agree with your conclusion. Feb to Mar ...craig - I agree with your conclusion. Feb to Mar has not seen a rise in Months of Inventory for the past few years and indicates that perhaps things will change this year.<BR/><BR/>The coefficient of correlation between Months of Inventory and Quarterly Price changes is -0.7969 and the R sq value is 0.635.mohicanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-31931658982475981172008-04-06T15:55:00.000-07:002008-04-06T15:55:00.000-07:00Interesting trend for the sales/listings graph. Ma...Interesting trend for the sales/listings graph. March 2008 was the first month in years to decline rather than rise from February. <BR/><BR/>This perhaps more than anything suggests it will be different this year.Craighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06687365669171143056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-59349001837805902912008-04-06T15:44:00.000-07:002008-04-06T15:44:00.000-07:00Great graphs.Many thanks.Great graphs.<BR/><BR/>Many thanks.fish10https://www.blogger.com/profile/13444226747530726325noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-77546892418931860602008-04-06T15:13:00.000-07:002008-04-06T15:13:00.000-07:00Out of curiosity, what is the coefficient of corre...Out of curiosity, what is the coefficient of correlation and the R-Squared value on your last chart?<BR/><BR/>Thanks,van_coffeehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14738166821362446247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-70967369343902053052008-04-06T14:29:00.000-07:002008-04-06T14:29:00.000-07:00Terrific Mohican! You deserve a break! Thanks for ...Terrific Mohican! You deserve a break! Thanks for all the hard work!Stratamanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17562001878583509939noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-53568559808438171872008-04-06T13:49:00.000-07:002008-04-06T13:49:00.000-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com