tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post2481404811013436751..comments2024-03-26T03:52:23.395-07:00Comments on Housing Analysis: Greater Vancouver Market Snapshot October 2011mohicanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-68693063643420777712011-11-04T22:58:28.566-07:002011-11-04T22:58:28.566-07:00Skeptic West I don't know. I do see more headw...Skeptic West I don't know. I do see more headwinds in 2012 than 2011 due to lower population growth, but whether that's enough to elicit the start of a significant downturn I don't know.<br /><br />I do think that Vancouver has a reasonable portion of its real estate tied to the performance of Asian economies, so if these economies were to enter a growth recession that would put more downwards pressure on prices. My best guess is that this growth recession is inevitable now, but will not be evident for another couple of years. Likely we'll see more tepid capital inflows in 2012 and further waning into 2013 and on.<br /><br />The third factor that would exacerbate a downturn is rising interest rates, and though things are slow to recover I think 2013-2014 is about when the US will have cleared its housing inventory overhang and employment will start surging again. That will likely drive up long rates -- I don't completely buy the so-called Japan syndrome -- and Canada will track this to some degree.<br /><br />I think that 2012 will be roughly flat in nominal terms, maybe a few % off, but 2013 will pick up steam on the downside. Lots of uncertainty there of course but that's my "best guess". Sorry no hard #s though!jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-80422175350718698852011-11-04T00:49:05.380-07:002011-11-04T00:49:05.380-07:00I've been waiting diligently for this post!
H...I've been waiting diligently for this post!<br /><br />How many more years do you give it?<br /><br />That is, how would you distribute probability of the downturn over the next 5 years?<br /><br />I think it's something like:<br />2012: 35%<br />2013: 35%<br />2014: 20%<br />2015: 10%<br /><br />So that's 100% in the next 4 years.Skeptic Westhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03114167855814263898noreply@blogger.com