tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post2460332617493252589..comments2024-03-26T03:52:23.395-07:00Comments on Housing Analysis: Is it time to buy stocks yet?mohicanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-31331301360889305912008-07-13T12:04:00.000-07:002008-07-13T12:04:00.000-07:00Preferreds have taken a real beating in the last y...Preferreds have taken a real beating in the last year and now you can get 6% or more from them, tax advantaged.<BR/><BR/>None of the major Canadian banks have ever suspended dividends. Of course, there's always a first time.<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.prefblog.com" REL="nofollow">PrefBlog</A>patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-23670564604973737012008-07-12T23:36:00.000-07:002008-07-12T23:36:00.000-07:00Mohican,Greetings!I noticed you mention a long ter...Mohican,<BR/>Greetings!<BR/>I noticed you mention a long term systematic investment plan.<BR/>I also have one. Since I value your financial expertise more than mine I'll state mine first and please tell me what you think:<BR/><BR/><BR/>I invest every month the difference between rent and mortgage in stocks. Actually, one stock (MCK)<BR/>I have been doing it for three years now. <BR/>(this stock represents the strongest medical infrastructure company in the US).<BR/>I assume all the stocks will freefall for 3-5 years now. I keep buying monthly (with 15% discount). At the bottom, two things might happen:<BR/><BR/>1. All the stock market goes to 0. We are all screwed. In that case, I have started already growing veggies in my garden and I am within bicycle distance of work (if there is still work).<BR/><BR/><BR/>2. The market survives. All weak companies, the non-productive ones, dissapear. Those who survive, thrive (less weeds). Of those, the medical field is going to be hot (baby boomers want to leave long and healthy).<BR/>Stocks go up, we sell stocks in 2016 and buy house cash.<BR/><BR/>And if all the money dissapears? Well, The worst case scenario is that I lose all the money and I will be in the same situation as I am today. I can't complain, I have a roof and my family has food.<BR/><BR/>How's that?<BR/><BR/>Best regards<BR/><BR/>aritBeMeCollectivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13103581633056908794noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-17971171499235628302008-07-12T10:21:00.000-07:002008-07-12T10:21:00.000-07:00mif, here is a listing of DJIA PE ratio. All liter...mif, <A HREF="http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/index.cfm?event=showAvgStats" REL="nofollow">here</A> is a listing of DJIA PE ratio. All literature I can find online points towards a PE in the mid teens.jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-47459822903269209002008-07-12T09:17:00.000-07:002008-07-12T09:17:00.000-07:00I pulled most of my money out of the stock market ...I pulled most of my money out of the stock market back in October of last year. The writing was on the wall at that time, that there would be a large number of earnings misses over the next year. We likely aren't going to see earnings rise for awhile: John Authers of the Financial Times makes some good points in this video:<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.ft.com/cms/bfba2c48-5588-11dc-b971-0000779fd2ac.html?_i_referralObject=789757697&fromSearch=n" REL="nofollow">Corporate earnings</A>Radley77https://www.blogger.com/profile/14825702358596382959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-86247014793276631902008-07-12T08:11:00.000-07:002008-07-12T08:11:00.000-07:00I’m looking for suggestions on what to do with my ...I’m looking for suggestions on what to do with my dough… I’m a blue collar sort with no clue about investing.<BR/>All my GIC’s have been and will be expired as of September. I can no longer get 5% on a one year close… The best is 4.05%/1year. My financial advisor is suggesting I stay put in CAD and invest in those GIC’s where the bank invests your money and the most you can earn is 10.5% and potentially 0% if the stocks don’t perform. He also suggested Gold (I already played with that and did very well a few months back… too bad I only invested .5% of my portfolio in it LOL! Real ‘Risk Taker’ here ;P). <BR/>I’m thinking of Investing in foreign markets where the currencies might be a little more stable. Any thoughts?mightymousehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14323452938333664944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-24576597577768598442008-07-12T01:40:00.000-07:002008-07-12T01:40:00.000-07:00I wouldn't touch the US market until I see a sign ...I wouldn't touch the US market until I see a sign that the housing market there has bottomed. Until banks can stop deleveraging from declining mark to market assets.<BR/><BR/>Besides, the dollar is going for a free-fall.Gabrielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02110168476086184327noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-84168711874732570312008-07-11T19:42:00.000-07:002008-07-11T19:42:00.000-07:00make it fit - I'd like to read that WSJ story beca...make it fit - I'd like to read that WSJ story because I'm having a hard time rectifying such a large discrepancy between the numbers.mohicanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-15680318409193813582008-07-11T19:36:00.000-07:002008-07-11T19:36:00.000-07:00Correction: I meant forward PE estimation is not u...Correction: I meant forward PE estimation is not useful, unless the market will take care of adjusting to 11 PE from 75. ;)Make It Fithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01711913927009901536noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-4920086828651815042008-07-11T19:32:00.000-07:002008-07-11T19:32:00.000-07:00Mohican, WSJ estimates DJIA PE at 75.95 as of July...Mohican, WSJ estimates DJIA PE at 75.95 as of July 11, 2008. <BR/><BR/><A HTTP://ONLINE.WSJ.COM/MDC/PUBLIC/PAGE/2_3021-PEYIELD.HTML?MOD=MDC_H_USSHL HREF="" REL="nofollow">WSJ P/E and Yields on Major Indexes</A><BR/><BR/>The trailing PE is not useful anymore. The cost push inflation is cutting into industrial and corporate profits while US consumer is in recession. The US Import Price inflation is now at 20% YoY.<BR/><BR/>The Q2 2008 earnings are -22% YoY. <BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3024-industryearn.html" REL="nofollow">Industry-by-Industry Quarterly Earnings</A>Make It Fithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01711913927009901536noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-63124008620548931562008-07-11T17:38:00.000-07:002008-07-11T17:38:00.000-07:00make it fit - you've got some bad data The P/E of ...make it fit - you've got some bad data <BR/><BR/>The P/E of the Dow is 14.14 as of June 30, 2008.<BR/><BR/>http://tinyurl.com/yvzvaj<BR/><BR/>craig - Official data has not yet shown we are in recession but many would argue that we are - it sure seems like it but I could be wrong.<BR/><BR/>Official data won't show we are 'in recession' until we've been in it for over 6 months.mohicanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-57026486037370311162008-07-11T17:04:00.000-07:002008-07-11T17:04:00.000-07:00I thought we were getting close to the bottom and ...I thought we were getting close to the bottom and was ready to start loading up on a big downday. However, with this Fanny Mae/Freddy Mac scare, I would'nt do much more than nibble for a while.<BR/><BR/>The magnitude of a possible bailout for Fannie and Freddy is mindboggling....more than a 100 times bigger than Bear Sterns....somewhere around $7 trillion, I think....could even be too big for the US government to absorb....may have to appeal to the IMF.<BR/><BR/>Let's hope & pray that they can somehow hang in there and tough it out, as failure to survive could ignite an unprecedented financial crisis that would deepen and prolong the recession.<BR/><BR/>Such a disaster could shut down the mortgage market, and hurt the housing market much more that the stock market. Even the remote possibility of such an event is bound to scare lenders into avoiding risk....my guess is that US mortgage rates are about to go up.macho slobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15640891497806482996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-65487734242525298632008-07-11T16:45:00.000-07:002008-07-11T16:45:00.000-07:00Care to provide the data showing the US is in a re...Care to provide the data showing the US is in a recession?<BR/><BR/>You won't find it in GDP, personal incomes, productivity, industrial production and whole-retail trade. Even unemployment is pretty mild and indications are that June retail sales were pretty good.<BR/><BR/>As for housing, it has only about half the impact on GDP it did two years ago, so further softening there is going to be muted. <BR/><BR/>To insist the US is in recession is to ignore the data. It may happen yet, but it's not here now.Craighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06687365669171143056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-76293719332171679132008-07-11T16:01:00.000-07:002008-07-11T16:01:00.000-07:00I bought a couple shares of Berkshire Hathaway rec...I bought a couple shares of Berkshire Hathaway recently because although I'm not sure where the bottom will be, better a year too early than a day too late. Otherwise my investing is all automatic withdrawals every two weeks.Ryanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10104704096049638272noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-72309915419976201542008-07-11T15:40:00.000-07:002008-07-11T15:40:00.000-07:00The PE ratio of DJIA is such a bargain at 89.53 ri...The PE ratio of DJIA is such a bargain at 89.53 right now. The market is expecting earnings to catch up to high valuations. It is still a bull market. ;)<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=djia&sid=1643" REL="nofollow">DJIA Chart</A>Make It Fithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01711913927009901536noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-44914275460130208752008-07-11T15:34:00.000-07:002008-07-11T15:34:00.000-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Make It Fithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01711913927009901536noreply@blogger.com