tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post1464799471021264207..comments2024-03-26T03:52:23.395-07:00Comments on Housing Analysis: Chilliwack Real Estate Statisticsmohicanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-84230763862507004762016-07-17T09:14:42.564-07:002016-07-17T09:14:42.564-07:00There are similarities but they do not function th...There are similarities but they do not function the same. <br /><a href="http://mycharismacondos.ca/" rel="nofollow">charisma condo</a>Starhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02687188318678091112noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-48982843480190846892016-07-17T04:49:29.476-07:002016-07-17T04:49:29.476-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Starhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02687188318678091112noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-76909000280172792702015-10-07T03:25:13.482-07:002015-10-07T03:25:13.482-07:00What's it worth now? Does Zillow overstate the...What's it worth now? Does Zillow overstate the value? By how much? <a href="http://mobilehomesforsale.com/properties/arkansas/" rel="nofollow">Mobile homes for sale in arkansas</a><br />Alex monerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02635328221496286054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-8500225858349154312010-04-09T08:34:44.456-07:002010-04-09T08:34:44.456-07:00Good to see these stats up.
Got any more House Bu...Good to see these stats up.<br /><br />Got any more <a href="http://www.chilliwack-house-buying-tips.com" rel="nofollow">House Buying Tips</a> for chilliwack homes?TheRealMusicianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16130582176804949564noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-72579037059139164842009-08-27T13:06:41.408-07:002009-08-27T13:06:41.408-07:00You said
"Crude went from 140 to 30 in 6 mont...You said<br />"Crude went from 140 to 30 in 6 months... with absolutely no breaks in the downwards movement." <br />I said.<br />"The four rallies on that chart are as follows<br />1. $90.42 to $110.45 gain 22%<br />2. $62.3 to $71.77 gain 17%<br />3. $48.25 to $55.98 gain 16%<br />4. $40.5 to $52.95 gain 30%"<br />As a final comment I will say you have a different definition of "absolutely no breaks in the downwards movement" but whatever floats you boat.Dyuglehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11436129427672307202noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-13669921377163481562009-08-25T17:06:32.101-07:002009-08-25T17:06:32.101-07:00Please show me where I compared oil to housing. I ...Please show me where I compared oil to housing. I was responding to the incorrect comment that "nothing goes straight down" which the crude oil chart that goes straight down clearly shows, as does an intraday October 19th 1987 S&P chart. <br /><br />Again, don't let facts get in the way of your argument, but at very least don't argue against yourself, you are starting to look silly with all the extra time on your hands.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-87250386056934479542009-08-25T15:56:15.188-07:002009-08-25T15:56:15.188-07:00The best related example of "straight down&qu...The best related example of "straight down" is Vancouver real estate in the early 1980's. Oh, and good luck with your bid on that place.Dyuglehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11436129427672307202noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-2257930711501547872009-08-25T15:36:35.163-07:002009-08-25T15:36:35.163-07:00Who compared oil (a short term highly volatile com...Who compared oil (a short term highly volatile commodity) to housing?<br />I would say you opened that door and I just walked though it with my 1987 comparison. Are you closing that door now that it no longer suits you?<br />If you are closing the unrelated comparisons door then your entire point evaporates.Dyuglehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11436129427672307202noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-42667112395853327952009-08-25T14:42:32.358-07:002009-08-25T14:42:32.358-07:00You are right. I will just close my eyes, plug my...You are right. I will just close my eyes, plug my ears, and repeat "a 30% rally did not happen" over and over so that it goes away.<br />Damn I opened my eyes and it is still there. Maybe using a 6 month sampling rate. Yes, that is it a graph with two points on it really makes your point.<br />You are sooooo right.<br />LOL.Dyuglehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11436129427672307202noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-40418390779762499182009-08-25T14:30:38.710-07:002009-08-25T14:30:38.710-07:00LOL, you're comparing a 1 day crash in 1987 to...LOL, you're comparing a 1 day crash in 1987 to a 6 month crash in Oil?<br /><br />Give you're head a shakeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-74005622091622478802009-08-25T13:04:53.601-07:002009-08-25T13:04:53.601-07:00The four rallies on that chart are as follows
1. ...The four rallies on that chart are as follows<br /><br />1. $90.42 to $110.45 gain 22% <br />2. $62.3 to $71.77 gain 17%<br />3. $48.25 to $55.98 gain 16%<br />4. $40.5 to $52.95 gain 30%<br /><br />So I have to ignore these rallies?<br />OK you are right.<br />LOLDyuglehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11436129427672307202noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-50755326963964275872009-08-25T12:55:51.515-07:002009-08-25T12:55:51.515-07:00This is your definition of straight down?
http://c...This is your definition of straight down?<br />http://cdn.billcara.com/assets/charts/2008_12_22_WTIC.daily.pngDyuglehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11436129427672307202noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-12772735218613273052009-08-25T12:11:28.888-07:002009-08-25T12:11:28.888-07:00If you want to see my definition of straight doen ...If you want to see my definition of straight doen look at the 1987 stock market crash. There were no opportunites to get short. That is a true crash and a nuch better definition of srtaight down. I do not have to resort to tricks like using a weekly chart.Dyuglehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11436129427672307202noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-45725650197617519232009-08-25T12:07:17.735-07:002009-08-25T12:07:17.735-07:00Try a daily chart as that rally lasted 3 weeks.Try a daily chart as that rally lasted 3 weeks.Dyuglehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11436129427672307202noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-13438441624632092942009-08-25T12:04:55.908-07:002009-08-25T12:04:55.908-07:00The bounce from 90 to 110 was not a great opportun...The bounce from 90 to 110 was not a great opportunity to get short?<br />It pulled right onto the moving average and formed a perfect flag.<br />This is the stuff tech traders dream of.Dyuglehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11436129427672307202noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-9882343304479401362009-08-25T12:01:08.569-07:002009-08-25T12:01:08.569-07:00You said straight down that implies no rallies and...You said straight down that implies no rallies and NO opportunities to get short. I have identified 5 such opportunities. It followed standard fib retracements and EW counts. That is not straight down in my book. This may not be your definition or straight down if so then I agree to disagree just as a majority of tech traders would.Dyuglehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11436129427672307202noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-85864891471683947962009-08-24T20:50:21.629-07:002009-08-24T20:50:21.629-07:00http://billcara.com/assets/charts/2008_11_28_WTIC....http://billcara.com/assets/charts/2008_11_28_WTIC.weekly.png<br /><br /><br />This is either a picture of the oil collapse or the visual representation of straight down in Websters Dictionary.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-84168834691743204552009-08-24T20:43:39.783-07:002009-08-24T20:43:39.783-07:00Ross,
Give it up, oil went STRAIGHT DOWN. A 10% r...Ross,<br /><br />Give it up, oil went STRAIGHT DOWN. A 10% rally in a volatile instrument such as crude oil is absolutely NOTHING, a 10% move up or down in crude happens in a single day quite often. Move on, admit you're wrong and next time enjoy the fabulous world of FACTS.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-16927066542881878042009-08-24T13:22:05.308-07:002009-08-24T13:22:05.308-07:00Oil did go straight down if you ignore 5 rallies o...Oil did go straight down if you ignore 5 rallies of greater than 10% each. There was a particularly large rally from 90 to 110 which was more than 20%. You want dates or just a graph?Dyuglehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11436129427672307202noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-43551306521615474142009-08-20T08:53:40.652-07:002009-08-20T08:53:40.652-07:00This is the answer to those bears making a big dea...This is the answer to those bears making a big deal about unemployment.<br /><br />No 'jobless recovery' this time around: CIBC<br />John Morrissy, Financial Post <br />Published: Wednesday, August 19, 2009 <br /><br />OTTAWA -- Canada's unemployed are finding work at almost the same pace they did before the recession began, suggesting that when the economy turns around, it won't bring with it a 1991-style "jobless recovery," says a report Wednesday by CIBC World Markets.<br /><br />While the number of unemployed Canadians has soared to 1,583,000 and the unemployment rate to 8.6%, people are finding new jobs within an average of 15 weeks, only one week longer than it took before the economic slide began, said senior economist Benjamin Tal.<br /><br />"Rising unemployment in a context of a relatively short duration of unemployment is a reflection of a dynamic labour market where becoming unemployed does not mean remaining unemployed," Mr. Tal said.<br /><br />Furthermore, he said, the data suggests that the current wave of personal bankruptcies, which climbed more than 54% to almost 11,000 claims in the month of June, will be relatively short-lived.<br /><br />The report explains that while the bottom line is the unemployment rate, the bigger implications for the economy lie in how much time people spend out of work. The longer people remain unemployed, and the larger the number of people doing so, the worse the impact on the economy at large, as consumer confidence falls and underlying fundamentals wilt.<br /><br />Currently, about 250,000 Canadians have been unemployed for more than six months, a number 30% lower than at the equivalent stage in the 1991 recession, Mr. Tal's study shows. Conversely, the rate of newly unemployed Canadians -- at one million -- is "in line" with the pace seen in the 1991 recession, he said.<br /><br />That shows people are still finding work -- although perhaps of a lower quality or in the form of self-employment -- despite the fact companies continue to lay people off, Mr. Tal said.<br /><br />Moreover, Mr. Tal said, this "exit rate" for the newly unemployed, who are finding jobs in relatively short order, "bodes well for a more normal job market recovery, as opposed to the jobless recovery that followed the 1991 recession."<br /><br />But it will again be a case of "the West versus the rest," as the fate of Ontario and Quebec, which currently suffer the longest lengths of unemployment, at 18 weeks and 17 weeks respectively, will be tied to a more anemic U.S. recovery, while B.C. and Alberta respond to a more vigorous global expansion, Mr. Tal said.JimTanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13480972517925246528noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-33239077770576360392009-08-19T08:05:45.160-07:002009-08-19T08:05:45.160-07:00.. Also David, thanks for posting the chart, being..... Also David, thanks for posting the chart, being a stock guy I feel more at home looking at this! How often do they update the chart?<br /><br />ThanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-75837395372976595902009-08-19T07:51:55.826-07:002009-08-19T07:51:55.826-07:00David,
If you're talking about nominal prices...David,<br /><br />If you're talking about nominal prices then it would be unrealistic for prices to be anywhere close to those of 35 years ago. I agree, I think the upside is capped and I see a MAX downside of 20% from here. I'm not an investor, I'm buying this home to live in but obviously I don't want to be buying at a terrible time. I think in 10 years prices will ultimately be higher and I'm fairly content with my decision even if it will unlikely make me a ton of money, I'd be surprised if it lost me a lot.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-9765044867455274832009-08-18T12:48:34.210-07:002009-08-18T12:48:34.210-07:00Chad,
At least you are prepared if things get nas...Chad,<br /><br />At least you are prepared if things get nasty, which is more than I can say for most first time buyers. <br /><br />I personally see prices falling steadily in the next few years unless there is a dramatic rise in interest rates, then there could be dramatic drops similar to those in the US.<br /><br />Most bulls are predicting flat prices or moderate increases, which would make it near impossible for investors to make money, as there would be no large capital appreciation and rents cannot pay the mortgage. No investors leads to decreasing demand which leads to decreasing prices. <br /><br />Generally I think buying an asset near its all time high price doesnt make sense.<br /><br />This graph from UBC shows nominal and real price (inflation adjusted) for vancouver homes. <br /><br />http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/cma/data/ResidentialRealEstate/HousingPrices/housing-pri-vancouver.pdf<br /><br />It is a few months out of date so add the spring bounce in there and it is clear we are almost at the all time high for homes in real prices. No one can say for sure where we will go but in the past 35 years prices have never been as high as they are now (with the exception of last summer) so I simply do not see them holding their value given the current economic crisis. <br /><br />Ultimately it is your choice and it does seem like you have done your homework and are prepared if things get hairy. Good luck to you if you purchase this fall and I hope it works well for you.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16361217381016612518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-43381614021715207472009-08-18T04:05:32.045-07:002009-08-18T04:05:32.045-07:00David,
I've run the disaster scenario up to 1...David,<br /><br />I've run the disaster scenario up to 14% interest rates and while it would make things difficult, it would not be impossible for me. I still am in the camp of flat prices for the next few years but I really don't see the bottom falling out.<br /><br />I will most likely go through and buy this unit if my offer is accepted. Ultimately, this is my house, but it is also a big investment.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-19221264780090824812009-08-18T00:21:33.088-07:002009-08-18T00:21:33.088-07:00Chad,
How about comparing Vancouvers price to inc...Chad,<br /><br />How about comparing Vancouvers price to income ratio to almost any other city in the world? Would you say that it is normal that most cities have the average house costing 4X the average income while in vancouver it is 8.2 last time I checked?<br /><br />I am saying that the average person should be able to afford an average home in this (or any) city. Things like investors and speculation drive that number upwards, but eventually they run out of greater fools and the system collapses. These low interest rates have brought affordability to some people, but when these interest rates disappear and return somewhere around the historical norm of 8% these people could end up getting screwed. <br /><br />If you do buy plan on paying something around 8% (this is a total guess, but is historically normal) and see what you can afford. Then just for curiosity sake see what will happen if rates skyrocket to around 12%. This would be a disaster for most people. <br /><br />Even a $200000 mortgage at 12% requires over 2000 a month. And 250000 (assuming 20% down) doesnt by squat in Vancouver.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16361217381016612518noreply@blogger.com