tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post1221081017125108224..comments2024-03-26T03:52:23.395-07:00Comments on Housing Analysis: Ubergeek Post Update - Price Changes and Months of Inventory in GVREBmohicanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06094213357140749289noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-61126953346636203982008-11-30T22:15:00.000-08:002008-11-30T22:15:00.000-08:00Yes, thanks again for the work guys! I love seein...Yes, thanks again for the work guys! I love seeing updates on this chart :)Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04552666254356506181noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-20227088297216665422008-11-28T10:50:00.000-08:002008-11-28T10:50:00.000-08:00Note in San Diego and Phoenix there was a tendency...Note in San Diego and Phoenix there was a tendency towards muted price drops at high MOI. mohican had this trendline on his QOQ and MOM graphs and I would expect to eventually see the same in these data.<BR/><BR/>Note I did some variance analysis and the linear fit is shall we say a bit of a stretch.<BR/><BR/>van_coffee I am amazed at the high inventory through the end of November. 30K seems like a lot of listings but who knows. In any case inventory just treading water compared to this year will further crush prices. We all knew how this tragedy would end back in '05.jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-25279676362088788462008-11-28T08:12:00.000-08:002008-11-28T08:12:00.000-08:00Jesse / Mohican - Thanks again for the fantastic w...Jesse / Mohican - <BR/><BR/>Thanks again for the fantastic work.<BR/><BR/>This is a very good summary analysis.<BR/><BR/>It's remarkable to me how "firm" the absolute number of re-sale inventory units has been coming into the winter months (total number of units in GV has not declined that much as compared to the last few years).<BR/><BR/>Coming into the spring, when new residential completing product is hitting the market, it will be fascinating to see what happens with re-sale inventory.<BR/><BR/>I personally believe we will hit 30,000 re-sale units in GV by June 2009 and the market will be an absolute blood bath.<BR/><BR/>Happy Times :)<BR/><BR/>VCvan_coffeehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14738166821362446247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31427364.post-70498786168632232382008-11-28T08:00:00.000-08:002008-11-28T08:00:00.000-08:00Thanks Jessie and Mohican! This is fascinating st...Thanks Jessie and Mohican! This is fascinating stuff! Is it possible to run a few what-if scenarios to give us an idea what the scope of future price drops would be based on slowing/flat MOI, steadily increasing MOI and finally MOI shrinkage over say, 4, 8 and 12 months?<BR/><BR/>That way we can revisit the data and observe how our hypothesis matches reality. If it's bang on, there might be an academic paper in there somewhere. Maybe even an honourary Economics degree?! :)Monteryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16144883006354683790noreply@blogger.com